The OKC Thunder Might Have Already Peaked, But Their Reign Isn’t Over

Thunder’s Depth Set To Take A Hit

Between Holmgren, Williams and Gilgeous-Alexander alone, the Thunder already have $123.3 million tied up next season. The salary cap is currently projected to be $165 million.

Add in Alex Caruso ($19.5 million), Isaiah Joe ($11.3 million), Aaron Wiggins ($9.2 million), Jaylin Williams ($7.7 million), Cason Wallace ($7.4 million), Nikola Topić ($5.4 million), Thomas Sorber ($4.9 million), Jared McCain ($4.4 million) and Ajay Mitchell ($2.85 million), and the Thunder are already at nearly $196.2 million in salary on their books. That’s before factoring in the No. 12 ($5.8 million) and No. 17 ($4.5 million) picks, or their team options on Isaiah Hartenstein ($28.5 million), Lu Dort ($17.2 million) and Kenrich Williams ($7.2 million).

The luxury-tax line is projected to be $201 million, while the first and second aprons are expected to be $209 million and $222 million, respectively. If the Thunder stand pat in the draft, they’ll already be less than $3 million below the first apron even if they decline their team options on Hartenstein, Dort and Kenrich Williams.

According to ESPN’s Anthony Slater and Tim MacMahon, there is “a strong anticipation among team and league sources that Hartenstein will be back in Oklahoma City next season, whether the Thunder choose to pick up his team option or the sides agree to an extension.” Hartenstein was their best antidote to Wembanyama throughout the Western Conference Finals, although it would behoove the Thunder to decline their team option on him and renegotiate a longer-term deal with a smaller annual salary.

Slater and MacMahon reported that rival executives “are also monitoring whether the Thunder could seek to trade other players to shed salary and limit their luxury-tax bill—or simply make room on their roster.” They called Joe and Wiggins “the mostly likely candidates to be moved in a trade to rebalance the roster,” as they have both “proved to be quality role players but fell out of the rotation during these playoffs.”

Joe averaged a career-high 11.1 points in only 21.2 minutes per game while shooting 45.5% overall and 42.3% from deep this past season, while Wiggins put up 9.4 points in 21.8 minutes per game while shooting 43.1% overall and 35.6% from deep. Joe has only one guaranteed year left on his contract before an $11.3 million team option in 2027-28, while Wiggins has two guaranteed years left before an $8.2 million team option in 2028-29.

If the Thunder want to offload either player, they’d likely get at least a second-round pick or two in return. They shouldn’t have to attach assets to move either one. And between Caruso, Wallace, Topić, McCain and Mitchell, they have plenty of backcourt depth behind Gilgeous-Alexander to withstand the loss of either one.

Reinforcements Arriving Soon

Even if the Thunder start shedding talent from their supporting cast this offseason, they have other players already waiting in the wings.

Topić missed his entire rookie season due to a torn ACL, and he didn’t make his regular-season NBA debut until after this year’s trade deadline due to a bout with testicular cancer. He’s played only 182 total minutes for the Thunder between the regular season and the playoffs since they selected him with the No. 12 overall pick in the 2024 draft.

If the 6’6″ supersized playmaker carves out more of a role in the Thunder’s rotation next year—particularly if they lose one or both of Joe and Wiggins—he could add a new element to their offense.

The same goes for Sorber, who also missed his entire rookie season due to a torn ACL. While he stands only 6’9″ without shoes—which won’t help much against the 7’4″ Wembanyama—he has a massive 7’6″ wingspan and 9’1″ standing reach. He’s an adept passer and defender who should further help shore up OKC’s frontcourt once he gets up to NBA speed.

The Thunder also have two mid-first-round picks to further patch any holes that might arise this offseason due to financial reasons. Slater and MacMahon reported that they’ve already had “exploratory discussions with teams in the top 10 about what it could take to move up”—perhaps they’re looking at Michigan center Aday Mara as a potential Wemby stopper?—although they noted that type of trade “is typically dependent on a specific target still being available when a pick goes on the clock.”

The Thunder are set to feel a financial pinch this offseason that they haven’t had to reckon with in recent years, but they’ve spent years planning for this exact moment. It’s no accident that they have team options on Hartenstein, Dort and Kenrich Williams right as Holmgren and Jalen Williams’ extensions kick in. They also front-loaded Wiggins’ five-year, $45 million contract so it would descend as their other players became more expensive.

So, yes, the Thunder will inevitably look different next year. If they lose Hartenstein this offseason, they could be significantly worse. But if they’re able to retain Hartenstein, they should be right back in the title mix.

And if Mitchell and Jalen Williams can stay healthy during next year’s playoffs—both missed a majority of the Western Conference Finals with calf and hamstring injuries, respectively—their dynasty in the making might be right back on track.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

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