Dillon Dingler’s 26 homers in 2026 are twice as many as he hit last year.
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The second half of the MLB season has been a disaster for the best home run bets. Entering the MLB All-Star break, the best home run bets generated $642 in profit for anyone who bet $100 on each of the touted home run props at the listed odds.
In the second half, the best home run bets have cost bettors $892. The best home run props have a 20-81 record, with three no bets over the course of the entire season, and they’re $250 in the red.
There is still time to salvage the season and generate a profit. Fortunately, home run props being long-shot wagers cuts both ways. While they’re difficult to hit, correctly selecting a few home run bets can pull the best home run bets out of their funk and lift them back into the black.
A power-hitting catcher and one of MLB’s best sluggers have eye-catching odds to hit a home run today. The first has an excellent matchup, and the second has an adequate matchup and blistering batted-ball data.
MLB Best Home Run Bets
Dillon Dingler (Detroit Tigers – C)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+553) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Dillon Dingler hit 13 home runs in 469 plate appearances last year, and he’s doubled his homer total to 26 through 517 plate appearances in 2026. The 27-year-old catcher has hit 22 of his 26 home runs against right-handed pitching, 10 at home and eight at home against righties this season.
The right-handed-hitting catcher has done an excellent job of putting the ball in the air. He has a 17.8-degree launch angle, 19.9% line-drive rate, 44.4% fly-ball rate, 16.7% home run per fly-ball rate (HR/FB) and 43.0% pull rate this season.
Dingler’s other batted-ball data is rock-solid, too. Among 244 qualified batters this season, Dingler is tied for 63rd in barrels per plate appearance rate (7.0%), tied for 76th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (10.3%), 93rd in hard-hit rate (42.5%), tied for 125th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (92.9 mph), tied for 114th in maximum exit velocity (110.8 mph) and 17th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (39.6%). It’s not a perfect batted-ball profile, but it’s stellar.
Dingler has a favorable matchup today. Freddy Peralta has allowed 22 homers at 1.47 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) in 26 starts this year, permitting at least one in 16 and allowing multiple in six. The veteran righty hasn’t figured it out since joining the Rays via trade, either. He’s allowed five home runs across four starts for Tampa Bay.
Peralta has been at his worst on the road, allowing 15 home runs on the road this season. He hasn’t been as easy for righties to homer against as lefties, but he’s allowed six home runs to right-handed batters, and four have been allowed on the road to righties.
Dingler’s chances of hitting a home run will also get a lift from playing in Detroit. Comerica Park ranks 13th in park factor for home runs since 2025 at 108. Dingler has a decent shot to hit a home run today, and his +553 betting odds for his home run prop are tantalizing.
Pete Alonso is in the top 10 in MLB in home runs this season.
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Pete Alonso (Baltimore Orioles – 1B)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+404) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Pete Alonso’s power has been on full display in his first year with the Orioles, as his 31 home runs are the eighth most in MLB. The 31-year-old bopper has belted 23 bombs against right-handed pitching this year, hit 15 homers on the road and smashed 10 against righties on the road.
Alonso’s batted-ball data is sensational. Among 244 qualified hitters in 2026, Alonso is tied for 23rd in barrels per plate appearance rate (8.8%), tied for 22nd in barrels per batted-ball event rate (13.9%), fifth in hard-hit rate (56.5%), 13th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (97.2 mph), tied for 25th in maximum exit velocity (114.6 mph) and 78th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (35.7%). Alonso also has a 15.2-degree launch angle on his batted balls.
The veteran first baseman’s matchup is also OK. Michael McGreevy has allowed 18 homers in 25 starts at 1.18 HR/9. The 26-year-old righty has allowed a home run in 16 of his 25 starts this year.
McGreevy has allowed six home runs to right-handed batters, eight at home and three at home to righties. The number of home runs he’s allowed to righties isn’t especially encouraging for Alonso’s home run outlook. That said, McGreevy also has an underwhelming 19.8% strikeout rate against right-handed batters, and his mediocre strikeout rate puts him at risk of Alonso putting a charge into a ball and hitting a home run at appealing +404 odds.
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