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Corbin Burnes Boosts Arizona Diamondbacks’ NL Playoff Race Outlook

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Corbin Burnes Boosts Arizona Diamondbacks’ NL Playoff Race Outlook
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Corbin Burnes can supply a knockout punch for the Arizona Diamondbacks in the race for a 2026 NL playoff berth.

The right-hander can help Arizona knock out the opposition by returning to his Cy Young Award winning form over the regular-season’s final three weeks. If he proves to be not ready and pitches poorly after a 15-month absence, he could send the D-Backs reeling out of the playoff ring.

Burnes was activated today from the injured list to start tonight against the Kansas City Royals. It will be his much-awaited first appearance in an MLB game since June 1, 2025.

The right-hander left his start that day against the Washington Nationals with what was diagnosed as elbow inflammation. Further tests showed a torn ulnar collateral ligament. That meant Tommy John surgery.

Burnes did not take the mound again in a game until 10 days ago. He worked two innings for Triple-A Reno. A few days ago, he tossed 53 pitches against batters in a minor-league workout.

That’s not exactly what the D-Backs expected when they signed Burnes to a six-year, $210 million contract in December 2024. He was good for 11 starts with his new team until getting hurt, going 3-2 with a 2.66 ERA.

One reason the D-Backs were so willing to go all-in on the contract was Burnes’ career durability.

D-Backs manager Torey Lovullo will be cautious with his ace, while aware that Arizona needs him now. They currently hold the final wild-card spot with a 77-68 record, just a half-game ahead of the San Diego Padres and four games behind the Chicago Cubs (81-64), who hold the first NL wild card. The Miami Marlins and St. Louis Cardinals are five out at 72-73 and the Pittsburgh Pirates are at 71-73.

“I think every situation is different,” Lovullo told Alex Weiner of arizonasports.com. “You look at Sandy Alcantara (Miami ace), who came back after a similar type of elbow injury. It took him several starts to get going and back into the shape and form that he was pre and now is today. That’ll depend on each person.

“The one thing we all love about Corbin is his drive and determination and his ability to overcome even though he knows he hasn’t thrown a big league baseball for 15 months. I think he’s the one guy that you could throw everything out the window and say he’s going to be spot-on when he joins us.”

Lovullo’s toughest task may be trying to reign in Burnes’ ultra-competitive nature. The 31-year-0ld had a setback earlier this summer during rehab and admitted he may have tried to do too much too soon.

Burnes At His Best

Burnes has been dominant since the Milwaukee Brewers gave him a $536,500 signing bonus as a fourth-round selection in the 2015 MLB Draft, pick No. 111 overall.

He rocketed through the minors in 2015-16, going a combined 11-3 with an unheard of 1.73 ERA. In 181 1/3 innings, he struck out 181 and allowed only 126 hits and 54 walks. After a so-so half season at Triple A in 2018, he was called up and went 7-0 with a 2.61 ERA in 30 relief outings.

Burnes struggled to a 1-7 record and was sent back to the minors in 2019. Then from 2020 until 2023 with Milwaukee, the 2024 season with the Baltimore Orioles and last year with Arizona he had an overall record of 65-33 with a 2.86 ERA, 1,009 strikeouts and 659 hits allowed in 881 innings.

He won the 2021 NL Cy Young Award and combined with closer Josh Hader for an absolutely domineering no-hitter in Cleveland that Sept. 11. Burnes fanned 14 and walked one over eight innings. Hader whiffed two in a perfect ninth.

Burnes’ fastball and curve were reminiscent that day of the stuff Len Barker had displayed in Cleveland in a perfect game against the Toronto Blue Jays in 1981. Simply overpowering.

In four playoff series for Milwaukee and one for Baltimore, Burnes has only a 1-2 record, due to lack of run support. He has a 2.33 ERA across 27 innings, fanning 25, walking 7 and giving up 16 hits.

Arizona Diamondbacks’ 2026 Future

It is make-it-or-break it time for the D-Backs, who in 2023 used an 8-2 record in late September to somehow skid into the playoffs with an 84-78 record.

Been there, done that. D-Backs fans want to see it again. They already have enjoyed signs of it this year. A 10-2 spurt in mid-July got Arizona over .500. A 7-3 mark in late August got the team into real contention and they are 4-2 in September.

Star second baseman Ketel Marte is back in good graces after being suspended. Sparkplug outfielder Corbin Carroll leads the NL with 13 triples and veteran third baseman Nolan Arenado has turned back the clock at age 35 and is driving in runs.

Eduardo Rodriguez (15-5) and Brandon Pfaadt (7-2) lead an injury-depleted starting rotation. That’s where Burnes comes in.

In 2023, Arizona stunned the baseball world. The D-Backs upset Burnes and the Brewers in sweeping the wild-card series, 2-0. Next came an improbable three-game sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers and a seven-game triumph over the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL Championship Series. They then lost to the Texas Rangers in a five-game World Series.

A similar run in 2026 is not exactly probable, but a healthy Corbin Burnes gives the Arizona Diamondbacks a decent shot at returning to post-season play.

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