How Kalshi & Polymarket Take On Sportsbooks

Prediction Market Legality

To-date, Polymarket has official league partnerships with MLB and MLS, along with individual teams like the New York Yankees. Both Kalshi and Polymarket also signed a deal with the NHL last year, and both appear to be in continued talks with the NBA as well.

In recent years, some athletes have also announced partnerships with prediction market brands. Leading into football season, LeBron James announced a new agreement with Polymarket after previously appearing in DraftKings ads. And Giannis Antetokounmpo also joined Kalshi.

On the other hand, though, the NFL has thus far been opposed to prediction markets. Though it remains aligned with traditional online sportsbooks.

The reasons behind the prediction market surge makes sense. For now, they’re expanding inside of a gray area, and are creating another avenue for leagues to profit off betting – especially in states where they haven’t been able to previously.

But that may not always be the case.

In August, the Ninth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals rejected prediction markets’ requests to offer sporting event-based contracts in Nevada, contradicting an earlier 2026 ruling by the Third U.S. Circuit Court. The split, and complicated decision from the Ninth Circuit, likely sets up a Supreme Court showdown to decide whether these prediction markets are offering sports betting or not.

As Judge Kenneth K. Lee of the Ninth Circuit noted in the August decision, “… the statute does not seem to categorically bar all gaming contracts, despite the text and contextual clues suggesting otherwise. So perhaps some unique sports events can be part of a swap trade if they meet the statutory requirements.”

He continues that neither side of the case emphasized this aspect of the case, since there were drawbacks for both in doing so that undermined parts of their respective arguments, and/or advantages.

Should the prediction markets be found to fall under the same rules as sports betting platforms, Kalshi, Polymarket and others would all be taxed and regulated according to local laws around sports wagering.

What’s Working In The Meantime

Prediction markets continue to push the ball forward to their own advantage. Kalshi, for instance, has doubled revenues this year, and Google Trends shows a 600% increase in search volume for the brand going back 12 months.

Part of that comes from their ad approach working, and setting the tone for potential sportsbook changes as well, though.

“Kalshi has effectively utilized TV advertising to spark brand awareness, both among bettors and non-bettors, while avoiding getting lost in deal messaging as the only way to drive outcomes,” Julie Van Ullen, President & CRO at iSpot told Forbes.

“By emphasizing humor and entertainment with creatives, prediction markets are fueling intrigue that avoids preconceived notions about betting and lets audiences discover the brand on their own terms.”

Some of those elements are already being included in new ad creatives coming from the sportsbook space for football season.

DraftKings’ new spot, with Nick Jonas and Kevin Hart, is more interested in brand narrative over offers and courts humor while telling audiences about its 50-state availability (courtesy of similar loopholes prediction markets have utilized).

And though these prediction markets won’t be seen much during NFL games themselves, their ad buys to-date have put a greater emphasis on non-sports programming (and viewers).

Still, even without the NFL, Polymarket and Kalshi partners with other leagues running concurrently to NFL action. During the first full weekend of college football, Kalshi was No. 2 by airings during games among all sportsbooks. That would seem indicative of a strategy to keep their feet on the gas pedal for now.