After Pacers Draft Pick Trade, Poor Finish To Season Maximizes Odds

INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA – OCTOBER 13: Bennedict Mathurin #00 and Isaiah Jackson #22 of the Indiana Pacers block out Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs during the preseason game at Bankers Life Fieldhouse on October 13, 2025 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)

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MILWAUKEE – The Indiana Pacers were 13-38 when the NBA trade deadline arrived in February, which was the worst record in the Eastern Conference at the time. They owned their 2026 first-round draft pick thanks to a smart trade last summer, meaning their poor record was trending toward a top selection in a strong 2026 draft.

Then, the Pacers made a bold trade. To acquire defensive anchor Ivica Zubac, Indiana agreed to a trade with the Los Angeles Clippers. Zubac and Kobe Brown went to the Pacers. Bennedict Mathurin, Isaiah Jackson, a second-round draft pick, and two first-round picks went to the Clippers.

One of the two first-round draft picks is the Pacers 2029 selection, and the second rounder is the Dallas Mavericks 2028 pick that the Pacers had previously acquired. Those are straightforward. But the other first rounder included in the deal is what made the trade bold – it’s the Pacers 2026 first-round draft pick. But it wasn’t sent outright.

Instead, it was traded with protections. If the pick falls within the top-four draft slots after the draft lottery on May 10, the Pacers will keep it and send the Clippers a 2031 first rounder, unprotected. If the pick lands outside of the top four, it will go to Los Angeles.

What makes the protections fascinating is that the Pacers have no control over their destiny. The top four picks in the NBA Draft are currently determined by the lottery, and every pick afterwards is made in the inverse order of the standings. Even after the trade, the Pacers had no way of guaranteeing that their 2026 first rounder would land in the top four.

“That’s a business decision. I can’t predict what happens in the lottery. Whatever happens, happens,” Pacers forward Aaron Nesmith said of the projected 2026 pick being included in the trade.

What did the Pacers draft pick trade do to their season?

While the Pacers had just 13 wins at the time of the trade, their final spot in the standings was far from certain. On that same date, the Sacramento Kings (12 wins), Utah Jazz (16), New Orleans Pelicans (13), Brooklyn Nets (13), and Washington Wizards (14) were near the Pacers in the NBA’s basement. None of those teams had been eliminated from the playoffs yet, but they were about a month away, meaning draft positioning was already a focus for several of those franchises.

The Pacers couldn’t reach the postseason field with certainty on March 11. They were the first team in the league to be hit with that fate, and their early-February trade became even more felt at that point.

With no postseason action to play for, the Pacers spot in the inverse standings became a major point to follow. If they finished with a bottom-three record, they’d have the highest possible odds of keeping their pick in the draft lottery. But if they finished with the fourth-worst record or better, their odds would drop somewhat.

“We’d like to have a top-four pick,” Pacers general manager Chad Buchanan said with a laugh when asked what he still hopes to add to his team after the trade. “Depending on if we have the pick or don’t have the pick determines some of what we do roster-wise, what we have flexibility-wise with the cap.”

A bottom-three finish would give the blue and gold a 52.1% chance at landing a top-four pick via the NBA draft lottery. The fourth-worst record would drop that percentage to 48.1%, then 42.1% at the fifth-worst spot. The Pacers, like every eliminated team, actually had a reason to aim for the bottom.

When addressing a question about teams angling to improve their draft position, NBA Commissioner Adam Silver said, “I think what we’re seeing is modern analytics where it’s so clear that the incentives are misaligned.” The word incentive is fitting, and the Pacers had incentive to aim for a bottom-three record. They already did somewhat before making the trade for Zubac thanks to their 13-38 record. But after the deal, they had perhaps even more motivation.

After the All-Star break, the Pacers lost a franchise record 16 games in a row. Injuries mounted, just like they had all season. Their schedule was challenging from early March to the end of the campaign. The confluence of health, incentives, and opponent quality led to a pile of losses.

After making the trade to acquire Zubac, the Pacers went 6-25 the rest of the way. They finished 19-63, and that ranked as the second-worst record in the NBA. Only the Wizards were worse.

And that finish means the Pacers enter the upcoming draft lottery with the best possible odds of keeping their top-four protected pick. There’s a 52.1% chance their selection is drawn into the top four, and the 2026 rookie class is considered very strong at the top. The other 47.9% of lottery outcomes would have the pick going to the Clippers – the only possibilities there are pick five and six.

“We don’t control that,” Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle said of the draft lottery. “If it doesn’t happen, there’s a contingency plan to build the team up too. We’re going to view it as a win-win situation… If it turns out we don’t get one of the four picks, then we’ve fulfilled a pretty significant part of what we owe the Clippers and we’ve gotten a center.”

The odds that the Pacers end up with the number one overall selection is 14%. That would be quite the prize for the team after a crummy season. But the franchise has to wait just over two more weeks to know their draft fate, and that fate will be determined by the best-possible odds.