OKC Thunder Shouldn’t Join The Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade Sweepstakes

Thunder’s Reckoning Is Coming

The Thunder have boasted the NBA’s deepest roster over the past two seasons, but their day of reckoning is about to arrive. Both Holmgren and Jalen Williams signed max contract extensions last offseason that kick in this summer, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s supermax contract begins in 2027-28.

A number of teams have struggled building around three players on max deals under the NBA’s current collective bargaining agreement, which introduced harsh team-building restrictions for teams that go far above the luxury-tax line. The Thunder have a massive cache of future draft picks, but not even they will be immune to the financial pressures imposed by the NBA’s apron era.

Their first decision this offseason is whether to pick up their team options on Isaiah Hartenstein ($28.5 million), Lu Dort ($17.7 million) and Kenrich Williams ($7.2 million). Williams should be an easy no, but Hartenstein and Dort were every-game starters for the Thunder this season.

If the Thunder decline their team option on Hartenstein and he leaves in free agency, Holmgren will become that much more important to them. They do still have Jaylin Williams and second-year center Thomas Sorber, whom they selected with the No. 15 overall pick in the 2025 draft, but they can’t realistically rely on either of them to contend with Wembanyama in the near future. (Sorber missed his entire rookie season due to a torn ACL, so he still has yet to even make his NBA debut.)

If the Thunder either pick up their team option on Hartenstein (doubtful given their other salary constraints) or decline it and re-sign him to a longer-term deal with a smaller annual salary (more likely), they might be willing to roll with Hartenstein, Williams and Sorber as their primary bigs. That could make Holmgren expendable, particularly if it’s for someone like Giannis Antetokounmpo.

The Wild-Card Thunder

Unless the Cleveland Cavaliers offer Evan Mobley or the Philadelphia 76ers offer VJ Edgecombe, Holmgren might be the best player whom the Milwaukee Bucks could realistically hope to receive for Antetokounmpo. He blows anyone whom the Miami Heat or Golden State Warriors can offer out of the water.

The question is whether they need to make a move that drastic—and how much beyond Holmgren it would cost them if so.

Holmgren’s projected starting salary on his new extension is $41.25 million, so he and Dort would be nearly a perfect salary match for Antetokounmpo ($58.5 million). However, the Thunder would be hard-capped at the $222 million second apron if they did aggregate those two, which would create some down-the-roster ripple effects for them.

Antetokounmpo, Jalen Williams and Gilgeous-Alexander are set to earn $140.5 million combined next season. Add in Alex Caruso ($19.5 million), Isaiah Joe ($11.3 million), Aaron Wiggins ($9.2 million), Jaylin Williams ($7.8 million), Cason Wallace ($7.4 million), Nikola Topić ($5.4 million), Sorber ($4.9 million), Jared McCain ($4.4 million) and Ajay Mitchell ($2.85 million), and the Thunder would be at nearly $213.4 million in salary.

That’s not even counting the cap holds for the No. 12 ($5.8 million) and No. 17 ($4.5 million) picks in this year’s draft. Add those two in, and the Thunder would already be over the second apron before re-signing Hartenstein.

The Thunder do have the salary and assets to jump to the front of the line in the bidding for Antetokounmpo. But it wouldn’t only cost them Holmgren and Dort, even if the Milwaukee Bucks sign off on a framework built around those two. Since the Thunder would be hard-capped at the second apron, they’d either have to let Hartenstein walk as well, or they’d have to shed enough salary elsewhere so they can re-sign Hartenstein.

Perhaps the Thunder would see the upside of a SGA-Giannis-J-Dub core as justifying the risk of cutting down their depth to that extent. But they also might decide that patience is the prudent path, much as they did throughout their rapid ascension.

How different would the Western Conference Finals have been if Williams (hamstring) and Mitchell (calf) hadn’t missed most of the series with injuries? Do they really need to worry about Holmgren being an 82-game player despite winning a championship with him last year? Wembanyama was a uniquely difficult matchup for him, but Wembanyama might be a uniquely difficult matchup for everyone.

As long as Wembanyama stays upright, the Spurs should be a fixture in the championship conversation for at least the next few years. But the Thunder just took them to seven games despite being without two of their three best offensive creators.

According to Sam Amick of The Athletic, league sources “have long maintained that Oklahoma City would not take part in the Giannis Antetokounmpo sweepstakes that will dominated the summertime conversation.” However, he added that their stunning downfall in the Western Conference Finals “is enough to re-spark that conversation. Nothing should be off the table when the end goal wasn’t reached.”

Would Giannis be worth it to the Thunder if he costs them Holmgren, Dort, Hartenstein and additional players and/or picks? He’s an incredible, one-of-a-kind talent, and he has the size, strength and physicality to give Wembanyama trouble, but he’s also turning 32 in December and is fresh off an injury-ravaged season.

The Thunder might not be Antetokounmpo’s most likely landing spot, but they could easily outbid other suitors if they do decide to go all-in. They just need to consider the ripple effects on the rest of their roster before they take that plunge.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

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