The Odyssey reviews are in, and they are not just stellar, they are the best of Christopher Nolan’s storied career. The man has never made a “rotten” movie, nothing below even a 70% on Rotten Tomatoes, but The Odyssey currently boasts a 96% from critics.
The movie being good is only half the battle, however. People still need to show up for it. And as one of the most expensive R-rated movies ever made, it is no small feat to earn the hundreds of millions it needs to. History has shown us the movie likely will, but here are the numbers:
- Reported budget: $250 million
- Reported marketing costs: $125 million
So that is a $375 million total before the theater cut, which puts break even from $625 million to $750 million, depending on which estimate metric is used. That would be a struggle for almost all R-rated features. But for Nolan? And if the movie really is as good as claimed? It may be a much easier task. Here’s the list of his total global grosses for his entire film history:
- Oppenheimer (2023) – $960 million
- Tenet (2020) – $365 million
- Dunkirk (2017) – $530 million
- Interstellar (2014) – $731 million
- The Dark Knight Rises (2012) – $1.08 billion
- Inception (2012) – $839 million
- The Dark Knight (2008) – $1.02 billion
- The Prestige (2006) – $109 million
- Batman Begins (2005) – $375 million
- Insomnia (2002) – $113 million
- Memento (2000) – $40 million
- Following (1998) – $240K
As shown, Nolan has only made one movie that has earned less than $500 million since 2006, and that movie, the high-concept Tenet.
The closest comparison to how The Odyssey is shaping up would be Oppenheimer, also a highly-praised, R-rated feature. The Odyssey is actually tracking to open above Oppenheimer with an $85-100 million domestic opening weekend and at least $200 million globally. It has no significant competition this week or next at the box office, not until the guaranteed monster Spider-Man: Brand New Day on July 31. But even that may not be the end of the world for its momentum, given the difference in rating and subject matter between the two.
If The Odyssey gets to an Oppenheimer-ish $900 million, that will be a big success. Despite the reviews, going to a billion or well over may be a bridge too far in terms of forecasting, but it’s certainly not impossible, depending on how it’s received by general audiences.
Update: Numbers adjusted for theatrical cut.
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