Studs, Duds And Could-Be, With Stats

Indianapolis Colts -3 @ Washington Commanders, 47.5

The first thing to remember is that this is an International game, so put your studs in early and get your could-be out of the flex position.

Studs: RB5 Jonathan Taylor

Dud: RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Could-Be: WR Josh Downs

The Why:

All cards on the table, I was originally going with Terry McLaurin as the could-be (and he is still an excellent choice), but then I started looking up the stats. The Commanders’ defense has allowed 280.3 passing yards per game (second-most…the Colts are giving up the third most); the Commanders have a 7.6% explosive play rate (fourth-most) while allowing 6.4 yards per play (the most).

For his part, Downs led the team in targets last week (11) and, for the season, is on the field for a 25.5% target share, a 34.5% first-read target share, and has an 85.2% route participation rate.

Going back to the well with Bill, Jacory Croskey-Merritt on dud alert, though. Croskey-Merritt is in what looks like a great statistical game. The Colts are allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game (141.3), but those numbers are slightly skewed, as Derrick Henry rushed for 144 yards and Kenneth Walker rushed for 117 yards against them in Weeks 1 and 2, respectively. Last week, the Houston Texans’ run game collected 70 total rushing yards against them. And while Croskey-Merrit is averaging 3.0 rushing yards per attempt, last week against the Seattle Seahawks, he averaged 1.9 yards per attempt on 19 carries.

This being an International game, and all, expect the unexpected.

Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens -11.5, 43.5

Studs: QB8 Lamar Jackson, RB2 Derrick Henry

Dud: QB Cam Ward

Could-Be: RB Tony Pollard

The Why:

Monitor Pollard’s injury status, but if he is healthy, he is going against a Ravens’ defense that has allowed the sixth-highest explosive run rate and the 13th-most yards before contact per attempt. Pollard is on the field for a 66.2% opportunity share, is ninth in explosive run rate, and seventh in yards after contact per attempt. Plus, he is their best bet to keep Jackson and Henry off the field.

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills -7, 48.5

The question is, what is going on with Drake Maye?

Studs: QB1 Josh Allen, TE5 Dalton Kincaid, RB7 James Cook

Dud: QB Drake Maye

Could-Be: RB James Cook

The Why:

Cook isn’t a could-be; he is an already-is. He quietly sits as RB7 (and this is mainly because his quarterback keeps taking away his goal-line carries). Nevertheless, Cook is averaging 6.0 yards per carry, has a 91.7% opportunity share, and is first among all running backs in both explosive rating (134.9) and breakaway runs (10.3%).

The real question is what has happened to last year’s MVP runner-up? Maye currently sits at QB31. He is first in interceptable passes (9), has thrown one touchdown pass and six interceptions, and the floor has dropped out as he is 12th in designed runs.

The Bills may be just what the doctor ordered, as they are allowing the sixth most passing yards per game (254.3) and the eighth most fantasy points (19.7). But until Maye proves it…he must firmly remain on the dud list.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals -2.5, 51.5

Studs: QB5 Trevor Lawrence, WR7 Ja’Marr Chase, TE10 Mike Gesicki, WR10 Parker Washington

Dud: WR Brian Thomas Jr.

Could-Be: RB Bhayshul Tuten

The Why:

This game has the highest predictive total on the main slate. It also has a Bengals defense that has a 40% missed tackle rate on outside runs. It just so happens that Tuten has forced 21 missed tackles in three weeks, and 15 of those have been on outside runs.

Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans -2.5, 47.5

Studs: WR4 CeeDee Lamb, QB7 Dak Prescott

Duds: RB Javonte Williams

Could-Be: QB C.J. Stroud

The Why:

Two words on the “could-be” Nico Collins. Monitor Collins status; if he is in, the offense is qualitatively better. And it’s not like Stroud has been throwing up duds in the first three weeks. He has 794 passing yards and zero interceptions. The problem is he also only has three touchdowns; Collins can change that.

And although the Texans defense looks like a shell of their former selves, they are only allowing 86.7 rushing yards per game. Running backs have not scored a rushing touchdown against them (yes, Josh Allen scored two on the ground in Week 1) and opposing running backs are only averaging 8.2 fantasy points per game.

Arizona Cardinals -1.5 @ New York Giants 44.5

Studs: TE4 Trey McBride, TE9 Isiah Likely

Dud: QB Jameis Winston

Could-Be: RB Jeremiyah Love

The Why:

Admit it, you were a little excited when you heard Winston was coming in. But he hasn’t even been a glimmer of the fantasy-relevant quarterback we were hoping to see. In his two games, he has a 51% completion percentage, but what is unforgivable is that he is only averaging 4.7 yards per attempt.

Meanwhile, Love has seemingly taken over the backfield in Arizona. He had 21 rushing attempts last week, averaging 4.3 yards per carry, and was on the receiving end of five targets. The Giants have given up two receiving touchdowns to the running back position while allowing running backs to average 17.9 fantasy points per game.

New York Jets @ Chicago Bears -3, 42.5

Studs: RB6 D’Andre Swift, WR8 Garrett Wilson

Dud: TE Colston Loveland

Could-Be: RB Braelon Allen

The Why:

Allen has the backfield all to himself. The Bears have been generous to opposing running backs; in Week 1, Chuba Hubbard averaged 4.9 yards per carry, while AJ Dillon averaged 5.6. In Week 2, Aaron Jones averaged 4.6 yards per carry while rushing for 105 yards on 23 carries, and last week, even after abandoning the run in the second half, Saquon Barkley averaged 5.5 yards per carry.

This is absolutely nothing against Loveland; he has a 73.9% route participation and is on the field for 82.8% of snaps. But the combination of the Jets allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to the tight end position (10.6) and Loveland’s 10% target share isn’t screaming fantasy relevance.

Green Bay Packers -3.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 39.5

Stud: WR3 Christian Watson

Dud: RB Kaleb Johnson

Could-Be: RB Bucky Irving

The Why:

Baker Mayfield is out. Undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels is in for the Buccaneers. Jordan Love is playing behind Pro Football Focus’ 32nd-ranked offensive line, and the Buccaneers blitz at the second-highest rate in the league.

And then there is the Packers’ anemic run game that is averaging a league-low 48.7 rushing yards per game.

From a redraft fantasy league standpoint, there is not much to love here (pun intended).

Los Angeles Rams -1.5 @ Philadelphia Eagles 46.5

Studs: WR5 Davante Adams, QB10 Jalen Hurts

Dud: TE Zac Ertz

Could-Be: WR Puka Nacua

The Why:

It’s pretty simple: if Nacua is in, you play him.

Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings -10, 38.5

Studs: Neither team has a player in fantasypros.com top-10

Dud: QB Malik Willis

Could-Be: RB Aaron Jones

The Why:

It is my firm belief that Jones will take over this game. The Dolphins are not only double-digit underdogs on the road, but they are giving up the most fantasy points per game to the running back position (27.9).

Brian Flores’ smothering defense will ensure that the Vikings’ offense gets substantial playing time, and Kyler Murray is still assimilating, while Justin Jefferson is recovering from an ankle injury.

Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers -3, 46.5

Studs: TE1 George Kittle,QB2 Brock Purdy, RB8 Christian McCaffrey

Dud: RB J.K. Dobbins

Could-Be: QB Bo Nix

The Why:

While this game is strength against strength, with the Broncos’ defense going against Purdy and the Niners’ offense, it is the second-half antics of Broncos’ quarterback Nix that may provide the most fantasy firepower.

Per NFL.com, Nix has one touchdown and two interceptions on 33 attempts in the first half of games this season. In the second half, he has not thrown an interception on 26 attempts, has one touchdown, and 165 yards. It will also help Nix, in that Nick Bosa is out with an injury. With Bosa on the field, the Niners had a 31% pressure rate; it fell to 20% last week without Bosa.

Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 @ Las Vegas Raiders 44.5

Studs: TE2 Travis Kelce, RB3 Kenneth Walker, QB5 Patrick Mahomes, QB9 Kirk Cousins, RB10 Ashton Jeanty

Dud: RB Emmett Johnson

Could-Be: TE Brock Bowers

The Why:

It’s math. Cousins luvs his tight ends. Bowers first day back on the job was last week, and he was targeted 13 times ( next most was Tre Tucker with four); he had 10 receptions for 116 yards and a touchdown.

It’s time to see if Bowers is actually matchup-proof.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks -6.5, 43.5

Stud: WR1 Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Dud: QB Justin Herbert

Could-Be: RB Jadarian Price

The Why:

The Chargers aren’t very good. The Seahawks (up until last week) were very good. But who will be the dominant ball carrier Sunday, Price or Emanual Wilson? Price fumbled and was punished, but before he was unceremoniously sat down, he was averaging 3.0 yards per carry. Wilson got the bulk of the carries (9) but only averaged 1.6 yards per carry.

It should be Price.

Detroit Lions -3.5 @ Carolina Panthers, 50.5

Studs: RB1 Jahmyr Gibbs, WR2 Amon Ra St.Brown, QB4 Bryce Young, QB6 Jared Goff, RB9 Chuba Hubbard, WR9 Jalen Coker

Dud: WR Jameson Williams

Could-Be: TE Darren Waller

The Why:

Detroit is giving up the most fantasy points to the tight end position. Last week, Waller led all Panthers with eight targets.

Williams has a 15.7% target share and a 25% first-read share. He is also first among wide receivers in drops, with three drops at a 17.6% rate.

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints -2.5, 48.5

Studs: QB3 Tyler Shough, TE3 Juwan Johnson, RB4 Bijan Robinson, WR6 Chris Olave

Dud: TE Kyle Pitts

Could-Be: TE Noah Fant

The Why:

The Falcons’ defense plays man coverage at the sixth-highest rate in the league. Quarterback Shough has thrown eight touchdown passes; six have been against man coverage, and five have gone to the tight end position.

Last week both Johnson and Fant had two touchdown receptions.

Studs, Duds and Could-Be Week 4

If last week taught us anything, it is to prepare for everything. This week there is an early international game, and the games with the potential for most fantasy relevance will be played on Sunday and Monday night. Prepare your line-ups accordingly, including who is in your flex.

Good luck and play nice.

Any questions? DM @gladysLtyler or, better yet, come to the podcast Friday Night on YouTube and ask all your questions! And yes, Heart of the Beast is an excellent movie.