Topline
Democrats hold narrow leads over Republicans in Texas, Iowa and Michigan, according to a new round of Fox News surveys—the latest to indicate Democrats’ chances of retaking the Senate have increased in recent months.
Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico speaks during a campaign rally at the Cailloux Theater on August 31, 2026 in Kerrville, Texas. (Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images)
Getty Images
Key Facts
Texas: Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 51% to 49% in the latest survey from Fox News (updated Oct. 2).
Iowa: Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek leads Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson 49% to 47% in the latest survey from Fox (updated Oct. 2).
Michigan: Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is ahead of Republican Rep. Mike Rogers 50% to 49% in the latest Fox News poll (updated Oct. 2).
Ohio: Brown leads Husted 47% to 43% in the latest USA Today/Suffolk University poll (updated Sept. 30).
Maine: Republican Sen. Susan Collins leads Democrat Troy Jackson 48% to 44% in the latest New York Times/Siena University poll (updated Sept. 24).
New Hampshire: Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas leads Republican former Sen. John Sununu 50% to 45% in the latest New York Times/Siena University poll (updated Sept. 24).
Florida: Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon is tied with Republican Sen. Ashley Moody, both with 45% and 7% of voters are undecided in the latest survey from St. Pete Polls and FloridaPolitics.com (updated Sept. 18).
Kansas: Democrat Adam Hamilton, a pastor at the largest United Methodist church in the country, leads Sen. Roger Marshall 45% to 43% with 8% undecided in the latest Emerson College poll (updated Sept. 18).
Alaska: Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola is ahead of Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan 46% to 41% among voters 50 and older a new AARP poll (updated Sept. 17).
Which Party Will Win The House?
Multiple polls in recent weeks show Democrats vaulting ahead. In a New York Times/Siena poll released Sept. 15, 51% said they would vote for the Democratic congressional candidate running in their district, 43% said they would vote for the Republican and 6% said they didn’t know or refused to answer the question. Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin shows Democrats are favored by 8.9 points as of Friday, 50% to 41.1%, up from 6.7 points, 48.3% to 41.6%, as of Sept. 1. Kalshi betting odds show Democrats have a 91.6% chance of winning the House as of Thursday.
Big Number
37%. That’s Trump’s approval rating in the Silver Bulletin polling average, amid a string of surveys in recent months showing his approval rating at record lows amid growing fatigue with the Iran war and its impact on the economy. While Trump’s rating is low compared to most modern presidents at this point in their terms, the president’s party historically performs poorly in midterms elections, due to a combination of factors including low turnout in a non-presidential election year and motivation among voters who view the midterms as a referendum on the president’s agenda.
Key Background
Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate. The party won back control in 2024, flipping West Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Montana, after four years in the minority. Cook Political Report rates the battle for control of the Senate as a “true toss up,” though it’s shifted three races towards Democrats in the past week. A split Congress or one that’s fully in Democrats’ control could significantly hamstring Trump’s agenda, though he’s circumvented Congress to enact some of his most controversial priorities, including mass immigration raids, the Iran war and reconstruction of the Capitol and surrounding areas. Democrats are also gearing up to launch numerous investigations into Trump if they regain control of one or both chambers, with probes set to focus on whether he has used the presidency to enrich himself personally.
further reading
Which Party Will Win Congress In The Midterms? Polls Show Democrats With Stronger Advantage (Forbes)
Trump’s Approval Rating Reaches New Floors In 2 Polls—As Support Among GOP Voters Slips (Forbes)
Leave a comment