BRASILIA, BRAZIL – OCTOBER 4: Presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro for the Partido Liberal smiles as he speaks to the press after the votes are tallied during the general election day on October 4, 2026 in Brasilia, Brazil. According to official results, Bolsonaro has 47.06% of the votes, and incumbent president of Brazil and presidential candidate Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva has 45.13% with 99% of the voting counted. Bolsonaro and Lula will face off in a runoff on October 25, 2026 after neither reached 50% of the votes to be elected president. In this general election, citizens will also vote for governors in 26 states, to renew the Chamber of Deputies and to elect a third of the Senate. (Photo by Ton Molina/Getty Images)
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Prediction markets are poised to replace individual forecasting, along with polling data more broadly. They’re more accurate.
For evidence, we need only travel back in time to last Friday. Around midday, prediction markets signaled that Flavio Bolsonaro would win the first round of Brazil’s presidential elections. Bolsonaro will now face Lula in the upcoming run-off.
Notable about the timing of what prediction markets revealed is how much they were ahead of other indicators, including equity markets. Sure enough, upon Bolsonaro’s victory the Ibovespa, Brazil’s primary equity market index, was up significantly on the way to all-time highs. Yes, prediction markets scooped very deep and very informed equity markets.
What happened in Brazil is evidence yet again that prediction markets aren’t casinos as much as they’re information producers. While gambling is designed to reward the proverbial “House,” unbiased prediction markets reward knowledge.
The happy news is that courts of law are starting to recognize the substantial differences between prediction markets and casinos. See U.S. District Judge Martha Pacold’s ruling last Friday, ironically the same day that prediction markets foretold the outcome of the Brazilian presidential elections.
Pacold ruled that the state of Illinois couldn’t apply its strict state gambling rules and licensing requirements to prediction market platforms like Kalshi. By defining the contracts purchased on prediction markets as “financial swaps,” Pacold concluded that these swaps fall under the sole jurisdiction of federal regulators, as opposed to cities and states with their labyrinthine rules and regulations associated with gambling.
All of which sets the stage for a great deal more wealth creation born of the aggregation of knowledge. Conversely, if Illinois had won prediction market platform Kalshi would have had to restrict itself within the state, including strict age limits, “geographic geofencing” that would have limited the combination of disparate knowledge that renders prediction markets so accurate, along with limits on what events Illinoisans could trade.
In short, if Illinois had won Kalshi wouldn’t have been the only entity to suffer the verdict. Information itself would have suffered quite a bit more.
With prediction markets embodying the combination of borderless knowledge, the attempt by the state of Illinois to place a legal fence around information platforms would have been extraordinarily harmful. Pacold’s decision happily spares Kalshi from needless rules that ignore the business it’s in, and that would have reverberated well beyond the corporation itself.
Here’s hoping Judge Pacold’s ruling sets a precedent, one that rewrites a mistaken narrative that has for too long portrayed prediction markets as variants of casinos. Nothing could be further from the truth. While gambling suffocates knowledge by design on the path to wealth consumption, prediction markets reward knowledge on the path to the creation of abundant information that is wealth personified.
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