Topline
Pastor Adam Hamilton looks increasingly likely to unseat Sen. Roger Marshall and become the first Democrat elected by Kansas to the Senate since 1932—as he racks up support among Republicans angry about President Donald Trump’s policies hurting Kansas’ agricultural economy.
The Rev. Adam Hamilton, senior pastor of the United Methodist Church of the Resurrection, smiles as he speaks to a reporter after delivering his remarks announcing his run for U.S. Senate at Harmon Park on Thursday, April 30, 2026, in Prairie Village, Kan. (Emily Curiel/The Kansas City Star/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)
TNS
Key Facts
Hamilton announced Wednesday the formation of “Republicans for Hamilton,” a coalition of more than 100 Republicans supporting him, including former governors Bill Graves and Mike Hayden, and Arch Naramore, who challenged Marshall in the primary.
Hamilton, pastor of the largest United Methodist congregation in the U.S. and a former registered Republican, is polling ahead of Marshall by three points in a YouGov poll out this week and the two are tied in a New York Times/Siena University survey released Oct. 3.
The Republican support for Hamilton comes as Kansas’ agricultural economy has been hit particularly hard by Trump’s tariffs and the Iran war.
Retaliatory tariffs against Trump’s levies, such as the 10% tariffs imposed on U.S. soybeans by China, the world’s largest soybean importer, have led private Chinese buyers to source them elsewhere.
Meanwhile, rising fuel prices due to the Iran war have driven up the cost of planting, harvesting and hauling, while steel and aluminum tariffs imposed by Canada have driven up equipment prices.
Trump also announced new measures in August to import more beef from other countries by removing tariffs on 300,000 metric tons of imported lean beef trimmings for 90 days, a move designed to lower ground beef prices, but one that prompted backlash from the cattle industry.
Contra
Marshall has openly criticized some of Trump’s tariffs, including saying during a telephone town hall in August he was “frustrated” by Trump wanting to import more foreign beef, NPR reported. “My point to the White House is when he does this, this sends the wrong signal to the rancher to keep his heifers rather than selling them into the market,” he said.
Crucial Quote
“The policies currently coming out of Washington are leaving [Kansans] behind,” Hayden said when he announced his support for Hamilton, pointing to the Iran war and Trump’s tariffs and adding, “Sen. Marshall time and time again has chosen to back the tariffs and the war, despite what is happening back in Kansas.”
Big Number
16. That’s how many percentage points Trump won Kansas by in 2024. Marshall won the 2020 Senate race by 11 points.
Key Background
Top elections prognosticator Cook Political Report moved the Kansas Senate race from “lean Republican” to a toss up earlier this week, predicting Democrats could pick up as many as six seats in the Senate. They need a net gain of four to flip the chamber. Meanwhile, Senate Republicans’ campaign arm has abandoned some races it previously viewed as competitive that now appear solidly in the hands of Democrats, such as North Carolina, and has shifted funding to Kansas. The Senate Leadership Fund has reserved about $8 million in advertising for Marshall over the next month, according to AdImpact.
further reading
Trump’s Approval Rating Stagnates At Record Low 32% In Latest Poll (Forbes)
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