Democratic Socialist Angie Nixon Could Deliver Upset In Florida

Florida: Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon is tied with Republican Sen. Ashley Moody in a survey from St. Pete Polls and FloridaPolitics.com released Thursday, both with 45%, while 7% of voters are undecided (the survey of 913 likely Florida voters was conducted Sept. 15-17 and has a margin of error of 3.2). A democratic socialist, Nixon’s win over moderate Alex Vindman in August was another surprise win for progressives this primary season and it would be even more surprising if she beat Moody—who was appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis to replace Secretary of State Marco Rubio when he joined Trump’s cabinet—in Florida, Trump’s home state where there are 1.5 million more Republicans than Democrats.

New Hampshire: In a rare bright spot for Republicans this midterm season, Cook Political Report shifted the race between former Republican Sen. John Sununu and Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas from lean Democrat to toss-up earlier this week. Cook notes New Hampshire typically favors Republicans for governor and Democrats in federal contests, but they have some advantages in this race. The state’s popular Republican governor, Kelly Ayotte, is running at the top of the ticket, while Sununu is from a prominent political family and has already proven his statewide electability prior to the Trump era. A poll from the University of New Hampshire taken last month, before the Sept. 8 primary, found Sununu leading Pappas 45% to 43%. They are competing to fill retiring Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaneehn’s seat.

Kansas: In another reliably red state with a competitive Senate race, Democrat Adam Hamilton, a pastor at the largest United Methodist church in the country, is leading Sen. Roger Marshall by two points in the latest Emerson College poll released Friday. Cook Political report still rates the contest as likely Republican, but shifted it from solid Republican after Hamilton’s primary win. A Democrat has not been elected to represent Kansas in the Senate since 1932. Indicating Republicans’ anxiety about the race, Vice President JD Vance recently stumped for Marshall. Hamilton called Vance’s presence there “a really great sign” in an interview with The New York Times.

Texas: Republican infighting in the GOP primary and Democratic nominee state Rep. James Talarico’s controversial past comments on gender and religion have made this a high-profile race. Trump gave a last-minute endorsement to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton over four-term incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, angering some Republican senators as Cornyn is well-respected among his GOP colleagues. Paxton beat Cornyn in a runoff by 28 points. Talarico has a slight advantage in several recent polls. He leads by five points (48%-43%) in a Univision/YouGov survey released Wednesday and he was ahead by three points (42%-39%) in a University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll released Aug. 24.

Michigan: Progressive Abdul El-Sayed narrowly beat moderate Rep. Haley Stevens in a primary battle that underscored the party’s internal identity struggle. El-Sayed, who is not a socialist but is a prominent example of the left-wing’s rise in the party, faces former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers in the general election to replace outgoing Democratic Sen. Gary Peters. A survey released Wednesday by CNN/SSRS found El-Sayed ahead by three points (47%-44%). A survey by Michigan pollster Epic-MRA released last week found El-Sayed ahead by four points, 47% to 43%, though 10% refused to respond or said they were undecided.

Maine: Democrat Troy Jackson, a former Maine state senator, is running against incumbent Sen. Susan Collins, who occasionally breaks with Trump on some issues. The race has been highly publicized over the many scandals surrounding former Democratic nominee Graham Platner, who dropped out of the race after a former girlfriend accused him of rape, which he denies, prompting calls for his resignation. Jackson leads Collins by four points (48%-44%) among likely voters in a YouGov survey released Thursday and by three points (48%-45%) in a CNN/SSRS survey released Wednesday. Maine is the only state of the six toss ups that Trump lost in 2024.

Iowa: The race between Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek to replace retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst was shifted to a toss up last week by Cook Political Report. Iowa voted for Trump in the past three presidential elections, but voted for former President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. Hinson is ahead by four points, 45% to 41%, in a Suffolk University poll out Wednesday and led by two and three points in New York Times/Siena University and Emerson College polls, respectively, taken earlier this month.

Alaska: Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola is vying to unseat Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, who is seeking a third term. The primary served as a test for the general election as candidates of all parties run on the same ballot and the top two vote-getters advance. Peltola beat Sullivan by five points in the primary. The last time Alaska elected a Democrat as senator was in 2008, and the state has voted for a Republican in every presidential election since 1968. Peltola has a history of winning in the state, however, when she beat Republicans, former Gov. Sarah Palin, and Rep. Nick Begich III, in the 2022 special election, then was defeated by Begich in 2024.

Ohio: Former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, who lost to Trump-backed Sen. Bernie Moreno in 2024, is aiming for a comeback against Republican Sen. John Husted. A Fox News poll taken earlier this month shows Husted trailing Brown by eight points, while a plurality of respondents, 33%, said Husted is too close to Trump. Husted is the former Ohio lieutenant governor and Ohio secretary of state who was appointed by Trump last year to replace JD Vance when he became vice president.