Fantasy Football Fallout and Surprises

PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA – APRIL 23: (L-R) Kayden McDonald of Ohio State, Kadyn Proctor of Alabama, Arvell Reese of Ohio State, Ty Simpson of Alabama, Sonny Styles of Ohio State, Carnell Tate of Ohio State and Dillon Thieneman of Oregon pose on stage prior to Round One of the 2026 NFL Draft at Acrisure Stadium on April 23, 2026 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)

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The first round of the 2026 NFL Draft is officially over. There were, as predicted, trades. There were also, as predicted, surprises. And yes, the Las Vegas Raiders did hold up their end of the deal and pick Indiana University quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the first pick. After that, a little bit of chaos happened.

We know that just getting their names announced makes each one of these gentlemen a winner. But we also know that the landing spot will determine how successful they become. And of course, our fantasy football fortunes depend on scheme fit matches.

So, here are three fantasy football winners and losers from round one.

Winners Round 1 From NFL 2026 Draft

1. R1 No.8, WR, Jordyn Tyson, New Orleans Saints

It wasn’t just about the tears of relief and happiness Tyson shed as his name was called (although it helped solidify him as a winner); it was about the landing spot. Head coach Kellen Moore is also the offensive play caller. Moore is known for adapting his systems to his talent.

Last season, the Saints ranked 8th in passing attempts per game at 34.8 (up 2.4 from the previous year) but only 14th in passing yards per game at 219.3 (still an increase of 9.1 from the previous year).

Wide receiver Chris Olave led the team with 156 targets, 100 receptions, and 1,163 receiving yards. The next-best receiver, Rashid Shaheed, who played in only nine games before being traded to the Seattle Seahawks, had 66 targets, 77 receptions, and 499 yards in those nine games.

Tyson now finds himself as the WR2 in Moore’s system. WR2 in Moore’s systems remains relevant. In 2021, when Moore was offensive coordinator for the Dallas Cowboys, WR2, Amari Cooper had 104 targets, 68 receptions, and 865 receiving yards. In 2025 with the Philadelphia Eagles, WR2 Devonta Smith had 89 targets, 68 receptions, and 833 receiving yards.

Don’t count out Tyson.

2. R1 No. 15, Edge, Rueben Bain Jr., Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bain, after all the pre-draft talk about his short arms and about incidents that happened years ago, is a Tampa Bay Buccaneer. Early predictions had Bain as a top-10 draft selection. His “fall” to the Buccaneers at 15 is a steal. Bain is an aggressive, physical, constant motor-type player who plays with a mean streak.

Bain will now play in Todd Bowles blitz-heavy, aggressive defense that depends on players who are versatile and can apply pressure at different points along the line and on the edges. This will allow Bain to rely on his power and dispel the notions about his short arm length.

3. R1 No. 25, S, Dillon Thieneman, Chicago Bears

Fully expected Thieneman to go to the Minnesota Vikings with the 18th pick. When that did not happen and the Dallas Cowboys went edge with their 23rd pick, Thieneman to the Bears was the next best option for him and the best option for the Bears.

The Bears’ defense led the league last year in interceptions with 23. Safety Kevin Byard led the team with seven. This year in free agency, the Bears not only lost Byard but also Joquan Brisker and cornerback Nahshon Wright.

Dillon is not only known for his football IQ but also for his ability to play up in the box, nickel, or deep safety. He is a day one starter in a secondary that has a reputation to live up to. Thieneman is up to the task.

Losers Round 1From 2026 NFL Draft

1. R1 No.3, Running Back, Jeremiah Love, Arizona Cardinals

Love is a generational talent. And his pick as the third person off the draft board further signifies his talent. It is not the talent that makes the loss, it’s the Arizona Cardinals’ destination.

The Cardinals are in disarray. Their first-time head coach and brother of Green Bay Packers head coach Matt Lafleur is Mike Lafleur. The offensive coordinator is Nathaniel Hackett. Their quarterbacks are veteran Jacoby Brissett, who wants to be paid, and Gardner Minshew, who is recovering from a knee injury suffered last December.

As for the run game, last season the Cardinals ran on a league low 34.08% of their offensive plays. They were 31st in rushing yards per game, 93.1, and 30th in rushing first downs, 5.4. Their depth chart includes Trey Benson, resigned James Conner, free agent acquisition Tyler Allgeier, and now Love, all cited to run behind ESPN’s 25th-ranked offensive line.

Love will undoubtedly be RB1 on the Cardinals. The fact is, it may not matter.

2. TIE, R1 No. 16, No. 24, Tight End, Kenyon Sadiq, New York Jets, and Wide Receiver, K.C. Concepcion, Cleveland Browns

When both names were called, if you listened carefully, you could hear the collective voices of the NFL fantasy football community let out a slow, sorrowful cry. Both players are uber-talented receivers. Both destinations lack the foundation to help them reach their full potential.

Sadiq is a steal for the Jets. One of the best receiving options available in this year’s draft, he will immediately improve a Jets offense that relied solely on Garrett Wilson last season. Wilson played in eight games last year and led the Jets in receiving yards with 395! The Jets’ offense was 27th in passing attempts with 29.1 and last in passing yards per game with 140.3.

And while Sadiq will “share” the tight end room, this puts a dent in the production of Mason Taylor, who was second on the team in receiving stats with 65 targets, 44 receptions, and 369 yards.

Concepcion did not fare much better with his landing spot. The Browns currently have three mid-range (at best) quarterbacks on the roster. Their leading receiver last season was rookie tight end Harold Fanin Jr., and their 31st-ranked offensive line allowed 29 sacks and 224 quarterback pressures. A supar offensive line, a three-headed quarterback rotation, and a passing game that finished 15th in passing attempts, 32.8, but 31st in passing yards per game, 165.1, does not inspire optimism for Concepcion in the fantasy football world.

Winners And Losers In The First Round Of The 2026 NFL Draft

Of course, it is all speculation, and it is why the game is played. On the surface, it feels like the Jets’ only intention during round one was to torpedo all fantasy hopes. It was, in fact, not a great night for offensive fantasy hopes all around. Perhaps the steal of the evening on the offensive side of the ball will go to the Seattle Seahawks, and their drafting Notre Dame number two running back Jadarian Price.

But if you play in a league that rewards defenses or play in an Individual Defensive Player league, there is hope. Sonny Styles in Washington, Caleb Downs in Dallas, and Bain in Tampa all look to not only instantly improve the defenses they are on, but will also provide points for the IDP leagues and winners.

Redraft fantasy football is an unforgiving game, just like judgments at the end of the football year. The Jets could surprise, and the surprise of the draft (so far), the Los Angeles Rams picking quarterback Ty Simpson at the 13th pick, could be what legends are made of. It all remains to be seen, and hey, there are still more rounds to go!

As for collegiate windfall, there is no doubt Ohio State University took the first round. With three of the top-10 names called all coming from OSU, Ryan Day has his 2027 recruitment video fired up.