Topline
Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown is up three points over Republican Sen. Jon Husted in the Ohio Senate contest—one of several pivotal races where polls show Democrats are ahead.
Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, speaks during a campaign rally at the Communications Workers of America Local 4370 in Brooklyn Heights, Ohio, on Saturday, October 26, 2024. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images
Key Facts
Ohio: Brown leads Husted 47% to 43% in the latest USA Today/Suffolk University poll (updated Sept. 30).
Michigan: Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is ahead of Republican Mike Rogers 48% to 44% in a GBAO poll taken for El-Sayed’s campaign and obtained by Politico (updated Sept. 28).
Maine: Republican Sen. Susan Collins leads Democrat Troy Jackson 49% to 46% in the latest New York Times/Siena University poll (updated Sept. 24).
New Hampshire: Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas leads Republican former Sen. John Sununu 50% to 45% in the latest New York Times/Siena University poll (updated Sept. 24).
Texas: Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 50% to 44% with 4% undecided in the latest survey from Marist (updated Sept. 23).
Iowa: Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek leads Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson 50% to 42% with 5% of voters undecided in the latest survey from Marist (updated Sept. 22).
Florida: Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon is tied with Republican Sen. Ashley Moody, both with 45% and 7% of voters are undecided in the latest survey from St. Pete Polls and FloridaPolitics.com (updated Sept. 18).
Kansas: Democrat Adam Hamilton, a pastor at the largest United Methodist church in the country, leads Sen. Roger Marshall 45% to 43% with 8% undecided in the latest Emerson College poll (updated Sept. 18).
Alaska: Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola is ahead of Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan 46% to 41% among voters 50 and older a new AARP poll (updated Sept. 17).
Which Party Will Win The House?
Multiple polls in recent weeks show Democrats vaulting ahead. In a New York Times/Siena poll released Sept. 15, 51% said they would vote for the Democratic congressional candidate running in their district, 43% said they would vote for the Republican and 6% said they didn’t know or refused to answer the question. Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin shows Democrats are favored by nine points as of Wednesday, 49.9% to 40.9%, up from 6.7 points, 48.3% to 41.6%, as of Sept. 1.
Big Number
37%. That’s Trump’s approval rating in the Silver Bulletin polling average, amid a string of surveys in recent months showing his approval rating at record lows amid growing fatigue with the Iran war and its impact on the economy. While Trump’s rating is low compared to most modern presidents at this point in their terms, the president’s party historically performs poorly in midterms elections, due to a combination of factors including low turnout in a non-presidential election year and motivation among voters who view the midterms as a referendum on the president’s agenda.
Key Background
Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate. The party won back control in 2024, flipping West Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Montana, after four years in the minority. Cook Political Report rates the battle for control of the Senate as a “true toss up,” though it’s shifted three races towards Democrats in the past week. A split Congress or one that’s fully in Democrats’ control could significantly hamstring Trump’s agenda, though he’s circumvented Congress to enact some of his most controversial priorities, including mass immigration raids, the Iran war and reconstruction of the Capitol and surrounding areas. Democrats are also gearing up to launch numerous investigations into Trump if they regain control of one or both chambers, with probes set to focus on whether he has used the presidency to enrich himself personally.
further reading
Which Party Will Win Congress In The Midterms? Polls Show Democrats With Stronger Advantage (Forbes)
Trump’s Approval Rating Reaches New Floors In 2 Polls—As Support Among GOP Voters Slips (Forbes)
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