DETROIT, MICHIGAN – MARCH 31: Jalen Duren #0 of the Detroit Pistons looks on and smiles against the Toronto Raptors during the fourth quarter at Little Caesars Arena on March 31, 2026 in Detroit, Michigan. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images)
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The NBA’s best remaining free agents recently started flying off the board. The Cleveland Cavaliers acquired Peyton Watson in a sign-and-trade as part of a five-team deal, and they re-signed James Harden to a three-year, $97 million contract shortly thereafter. DeMar DeRozan then agreed to a one-year, $3.9 million veteran-minimum deal with the Denver Nuggets, while Klay Thompson secured a buyout from the Dallas Mavericks and signed with the Miami Heat.
Meanwhile, Detroit Pistons center Jalen Duren is still stuck in restricted free agency, eagerly awaiting his own payday.
Cooler heads figure to eventually prevail, as both sides have too much to lose. Duren could accept his one-year, $9.6 million qualifying offer, which would ensure that he would become an unrestricted free agent next offseason, but he’d be one injury away from potentially costing himself $100-plus million. And the Pistons, who just won 60 games this past season, can’t risk losing their franchise center for nothing in a year.
Luckily, what once looked like a disaster for the Pistons could wind up being the answer to solving their impasse with Duren.
All-NBA Nod To The Rescue?
Duren wound up earning his first All-NBA nod this past season after averaging a career-high 19.5 points along with 10.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 0.8 blocks in only 28.2 minutes per game. As a result, he became eligible to receive a contract from the Pistons starting at 30% of the 2026-27 salary cap instead of 25%, which is the typical maximum salary for a player with fewer than seven years of NBA experience.
This year’s salary cap landed just below $165 million, which means a 25% max contract can begin at $41.2 million, while a 30% max can begin at $49.5 million. If the Pistons were willing to offer Duren a max or near-max contract, he likely would have signed on the dotted line long ago, but it’s unclear what their latest offer to him is.
Duren is eligible to sign a contract with 8% annual raises, but such a deal would likely outpace the growth of the salary cap. With 2023 No. 5 overall pick Ausar Thompson also eligible to sign an extension this offseason and All-NBA point guard Cade Cunningham already on a 30% max, the Pistons could soon find themselves in a budget crunch if they aren’t careful with Duren and Thompson’s next deals.
When Duren qualified for a 30% max, it looked like a disaster in the making for the Pistons. After all, he was in the midst of a no-show in the playoffs when the All-NBA teams were announced this year. Duren wound up averaging only 10.2 points and 8.5 rebounds in 30.1 minutes per game during this year’s playoffs, a drastic drop-off from his regular-season output.
Duren and his representation have hopefully come to terms with a 30% max being a complete non-starter after his dismal playoff performance. However, his All-NBA could ironically wind up helping the Pistons out long-term.
Contract aren’t required to increase annually. They can stay flat each year, which causes them to take up a smaller percentage of the salary cap as they progress, or they can even decrease by up to 8% annually.
The Pistons are currently a league-high $46.1 million below the NBA’s $200.4 million luxury-tax line (not including Duren’s current cap hold). They have plenty of flexibility to fit Duren in without going into tax territory this year.
They should take advantage of that by signing Duren to a bloated first-year salary—perhaps one that even goes above 25% of the salary cap—and then structuring his contract to descend instead of ascend. That could kill two birds with one stone.
How Ausar Thompson Figures In
If Thompson receives an extension with the standard 8% annual raises, the Pistons would be more or less locked into their core upon signing both him and Duren. Even if Thompson and Duren don’t sign max deals, those two and Cunningham figure to gobble up at least 65-70% of the Pistons’ cap space each year moving forward. The Pistons will be able to tinker around the edges from there, but they won’t have room for another significant contract.
But if Duren signs a contract that descends, that would help offset the annual increases in both Cunningham and Thompson’s deals. Those aren’t the only two deals that the Pistons need to be mindful of, either.
Next offseason, Daniss Jenkins is set to become a restricted free agent, while 2024 No. 5 overall pick Ron Holland II will become extension-eligible. If the Pistons hope to retain either player long-term, they’ll need to be budgeting for those contracts as well.
The same goes for Isaiah Joe, whom the Pistons have an $11.3 million team option on in 2027-28 before he becomes an unrestricted free agent in 2028, and Paul Reed, who’s entering the final year of his contract this season. In other words, the Pistons will still have a financial juggling act to navigate after they figure out new deals for Duren and Thompson.
Duren and the Pistons first need to agree on a total dollar amount and number of years on his next contract. From there, they can get creative with the structure.
Had Duren not made an All-NBA team, a contract that started at his max salary ($41.2 million) and decreased 8% annually would top out at five years and $179.5 million. That might be roughly the fair-market value for him, especially considering the four-year, $130 million contract that Walker Kessler received from the Los Angeles Lakers this offseason. But if that isn’t quite enough to get him to sign on the dotted line, the Pistons can go above $41.2 million for his starting salary since he did make an All-NBA team.
Despite winning 60 games this past season, the Pistons likely would prefer to avoid going into luxury-tax territory this coming year to avoid starting the clock on the repeater tax. (Teams face a far more punitive tax rate once they’re in tax territory for three years over a four-year stretch.) Luckily, they have enough wiggle room under the tax line to hand Duren a salary starting in the low-to-mid-40s, if needed.
Perhaps the gap between Duren and the Pistons is too significant to overcome, and he bets on himself by taking his $9.6 million qualifying offer to become an unrestricted free agent next offseason. But the extra financial flexibility afforded by Duren’s All-NBA nod could help the two sides reach an agreement on a long-term contract securing his place alongside Cunningham in Detroit’s future.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
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