Josh Downs has graduated from a part-time role to a full-time receiving role in 2026.
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NFL Week 4 is the first to feature a Sunday morning game from the NFL’s International Series. The Indianapolis Colts are 3.5-point favorites against the Washington Commanders. The quarterback situation is murky for the Commanders, as Jayden Daniels has practiced this week, but Marcus Mariota is waiting in the wings if Daniels is out again.
There’s no mystery for the Colts. Daniel Jones is their starting quarterback, and he could be busy this week, which is ideal for the receiving outlook for two of his pass-catching weapons. The team’s top healthy wide receiver and their second-year tight end have eye-catching player props in London on Sunday.
NFL Week 4: International Series (London) Best Player Props
- Josh Downs Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-125) at Fanatics Sportsbook
- Tyler Warren Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Josh Downs (Indianapolis Colts – WR)
Josh Downs wasn’t deployed as a full-time wideout during his first three years in his career, with a 64.3% snap share and 67.8% route participation rate. He was also largely limited to the slot, with an 83.1% slot rate and only a 15.9% wide alignment rate through his first 47 NFL games.
Things have changed for the better for Downs this year. The fourth-year pro has a 79.1% snap share, 83.3% route participation rate, 74.4% slot rate and 23.3% wide alignment rate. He’s rewarded Shane Steichen for ramping up his playing time.
Downs has a 24.5% target share, 0.27 target per route rate (TPRR), 31.5% first-read rate, 42.8% air yard share, 4.7 receptions per game, 62.0 receiving yards per game and 2.07 yards per route run (Y/RR). After a disappointing 37 receiving yards in Week 1, Downs has climbed to 72 and 77 receiving yards.
He can maintain his momentum this week. Washington’s defense has faced the second-highest pass rate over expected (11.6% PROE) this season. The Commanders have allowed the third-most receiving yards per game (192.0) and the ninth-most yards per target (9.39) to wide receivers in 2026.
The Commanders have allowed one wide receiver to surpass 60.5 receiving yards in all three games this year, permitting 73 to Dontayvion Wicks in Week 1, 153 to CeeDee Lamb in Week 2 and 128 to Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Week 3. Downs should be the latest to crack that threshold against Washington’s leaky secondary.
Tyler Warren hasn’t gotten off to a fast start this year, but he has a get-right matchup in London this week.
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Tyler Warren (Indianapolis Colts – TE)
Since the Commanders have a pass-funnel defense, there’s room for more than one pass-catcher on the Colts to clear their receiving props. Tyler Warren can also thrive. The second-year pro has averaged only 29.7 receiving yards per game, but his 92.5% snap share, 82.4% route participation rate, 22.4% target share and 0.25 TPRR are all excellent marks.
Warren has a get-right matchup this week through two lenses. First, the Commanders have allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game (67.3) to tight ends this year and the third-most yards per target (10.10). They’ve allowed a tight end to exceed 46.5 receiving yards in two of three games, allowing 77 to Dallas Goedert in Week 1 and 69 to AJ Barner in Week 3.
Second, Washington’s coverage tendencies favor Warren’s receiving outlook. The Commanders have played zone coverage 81.0% of the time and two-high coverage 81.9% of the time this season. Warren has 0.24 TPRR and 1.89 Y/RR on 423 career routes against zone and 0.21 TPRR and 1.32 Y/RR on 294 career routes against two-high coverage.
As a result, Warren should join Downs in clearing his receiving prop in the NFL International Series contest in London this week.
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