Spurs’ Rapid Ascension To NBA Finals Spells Doom For The Rest Of The League

Spurs Won’t Be A One-Hit Wonder

The Spurs are heading into the offseason with only $156.4 million in salary on their books. If the salary cap lands at $165 million as expected, the Spurs should have the full $15.0 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception at their disposal, plus plenty of sign-and-trade options and flexibility under the $209 million first apron.

This playoff run should prove to the Spurs that they’re ready to win now around Wembanyama, Fox, Castle and Harper. If they can’t finish the deal in this year’s Finals, they’ll likely look to spend the offseason shoring up whatever weaknesses the Knicks expose en route to the title.

Once Harper and Castle are up for extensions, the Spurs will likely have to consider breaking up those two and Fox. It’s very difficult to build around three max or near-max contracts, much less four. Unless Castle and/or Harper accept far less than expected on their next deals, the Spurs would have to contend with those two, Wembanyama and Fox alone earning more than the entire salary cap moving forward.

Luckily, they don’t have to worry about that for another 2-3 years.

Wembanyama is eligible for a contract extension this offseason and will inevitably be offered a full max deal that could start at 30% of the salary cap if he wins MVP, Defensive Player of the Year and/or gets named to an All-NBA team next year. At least one of those are locks—if not all three—as long as he plays in the mandatory 65 games. If he doesn’t, his new max deal will start at 25% of the 2027-28 salary cap.

Castle still has two years left on his rookie deal, so he won’t be extension-eligible until the 2027 offseason, and his new deal won’t begin until after the 2027-28 season. Harper won’t be eligible for a new deal until 2028, and it won’t kick in until after the 2028-29 campaign.

Fox is about to begin the four-year, $221.8 million max extension that he signed with the Spurs last August. By the time that Harper’s rookie-scale contract expires, Fox will be on an expiring contract that’s projected to be worth nearly $61.4 million.

But for the next three seasons, they already have their core locked into place. The supporting cast will be their big question moving forward.

Can The Spurs Maintain Their Supporting Cast?

When building around multiple players on max contracts—as the Spurs will be doing as soon as 2027-28—it becomes increasingly difficult to sustain a championship-caliber supporting cast. With all due respect to Harrison Barnes, Kelly Olynyk and Jordan McLaughlin, the Spurs don’t have many notable free agents to re-sign this offseason, but that won’t be the case next summer and beyond.

Devin Vassell still has three years left on his five-year, $135 million contract, so he’s signed through 2028-29. Rookie forward Carter Bryant also has three years left on his rookie-scale deal, and Luke Kornet is signed through 2028-29 as well, although his salary is non-guaranteed after 2026-27.

The Spurs have a $3.0 million team option on Julian Champagnie that they could either pick up this offseason or decline it to sign him to a longer-term contract. Keldon Johnson is also on an $18.0 million expiring contract. The Spurs will have to decide whether to re-sign either player within the next 13 months (if not sooner).

Depending on what they do with Champagnie and whether they re-sign any of their other free agents (namely Barnes), the Spurs still should have plenty of room under the first apron to use both the $15.0 million non-taxpayer MLE and the $5.5 million bi-annual exception this offseason. They also have the allure of playing with Wembanyama—and no state income tax in Texas—as two major free-agent drawing points.

Ring-chasers historically flock to big-market teams like the Los Angeles Lakers and New York Knicks, particularly when those teams are championship contenders. But those teams don’t have Wembanyama, who’s already making his case as a greatest-of-all-time candidate if he can stay healthy.

Wembanyama was just named the first unanimous Defensive Player of the Year in NBA history. The Spurs just became the first team in league history to make it to the Finals with its top two scorers no older than 22, and they’re the “second-youngest Finals team based on weighted minutes played,” according to ESPN Research, trailing only the 1977 Portland Trail Blazers.

There’s no guarantee that Wembanyama stays healthy moving forward, of course. There’s never been someone with his combination of size and skill set before. He’s basically an NBA2K Create-a-Player come to life.

But if he does, the Spurs have the right combination of youth, top-end talent, depth and financial flexibility to be a fixture in the championship conversation moving forward.

“They’re young. They’re talented. Well-coached. They play the right way, play together. Seems like they like each other. They have the makeup for sure,” Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander told reporters after his team’s Game 7 loss to the Spurs on Saturday. “You don’t beat us without the makeup. So they have the makeup to go get [a title].”

The Spurs might not stop at only one title, either. Multiple championships, DPOYs and Most Valuable Player awards seem to be in Wembanyama’s future, health permitting.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

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