The 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge Picks And Plays

Ludvig Aberg

Ludvig Åberg enters the week as the betting favorite, and for good reason. Fresh off a top-four finish at the PGA Championship, the Swede is looking to continue a remarkable stretch of consistency that has firmly established him among the game’s elite. Over his last seven starts on the PGA Tour, Åberg has recorded six top-10 finishes.

Statistically, few players in the world are performing at his level. Over the last 36 rounds, Åberg ranks No. 1 in Strokes Gained: Total, Tee-to-Green, Approach, and Ball Striking — a combination that highlights just how dominant he has been from tee to green.

So what has kept him from adding another victory to his résumé? If there is one area that has lagged behind the rest of his game, it has been the putter. Åberg ranks just outside the top 60 in Strokes Gained: Putting, and that inconsistency on the greens has been a major reason he has not returned to the winner’s circle since capturing the Genesis Invitational earlier in 2025. With a weaker field, I wouldn’t be surprised if that changes this week.

Justin Thomas

After what he showed at the PGA Championship, it feels fair to say that Justin Thomas may finally be returning to the version of himself golf fans became accustomed to seeing during his peak years. The ball striking looked like vintage JT throughout the week, but it was the putter that elevated him to a top-three finish.

Thomas finished fourth in Strokes Gained: Putting for the championship and looked as comfortable over the ball on the greens as he has in quite some time. When the putter cooperates alongside his elite iron play, he once again becomes one of the most dangerous players in any field.

This week’s setup should suit him perfectly as well. The tree-lined corridors and emphasis on shaping tee shots in both directions allow Justin Thomas’ creativity to fully come alive — a style of golf that has consistently brought out the best in his game. With his last victory coming just over a year ago at Harbour Town, Colonial CC presents a comparable test of precision, strategy, and shot-making. If Thomas can replicate that formula once again, he may find himself slipping on a tartan jacket of a different variety by Sunday evening.

Tony Finau

When it comes to course history over the last decade at Colonial Country Club, Jordan Spieth, Collin Morikawa, and yes, even Tony Finau stand out as players who have consistently thrived on this layout — further reinforcing the advantage elite iron players tend to hold at Colonial.

That said, Finau’s recent form has been far from elite. Currently sitting outside the top 100 in the Official World Golf Ranking, his game has noticeably regressed over the past couple of seasons. Outside of Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green, Finau ranks 94th or worse in every major statistical category, a stark contrast from the all-around consistency that once made him one of the Tour’s most reliable players.

Still, there are signs that things may finally be trending in the right direction. With veteran caddie John Ellis now on the bag, Finau posted a tie for sixth last week at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, one of his best performances in quite some time.

With renewed confidence and some of the strongest course history in the field, this could be the week to get ahead of a potential Finau resurgence before the rest of the golf world catches on.

J.J. Spaun

Winning in Texas is already something J. J. Spaun has accomplished this season. His victory at the Valero Texas Open in April marked his return to the winner’s circle for the first time since his dramatic finish at the 2025 U.S. Open.

After a sluggish start to the season, Spaun has quietly begun to round into form. He has posted three top-25 finishes in his last four starts, including a top-five showing at the Truist Championship, signaling that his game is beginning to trend in the right direction.

His iron play has been strong enough to contend virtually anywhere on the PGA Tour, but the putter has remained the glaring weakness. Spaun currently ranks 155th in Strokes Gained: Putting, a number that makes it difficult to consistently keep pace with the elite players in the world on a week to week basis.

Still, with improved recent form and a top-six finish at this exact tournament back in 2025, Spaun appears to be building momentum toward another strong performance in Texas this week.

Sleeper

Tom Hoge

The former TCU Horned Frogs standout returns to Fort Worth coming off his best finish of the season, a tie for sixth at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. Known primarily for his iron play, he ranked inside the top 15 in Strokes Gained: Approach last week and now heads back to familiar surroundings looking to build on that momentum.

Still, there is a reason he enters the week as a dark horse rather than a favorite. The overall statistical profile remains difficult to trust consistently on the PGA Tour. He currently ranks 155th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, 142nd Around-the-Green, and 94th in Putting, with Approach being his strongest category at 61st.

That combination is not typically a formula for contending week after week against these professional fields. But returning to a course and city where he feels comfortable, along with the support of local fans behind him could provide the spark needed to make some noise at Colonial.