Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur shouts as he stands on the field during the second half of an NFL football game against the Minnesota Vikings Sunday.
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The Green Bay Packers keep bucking the odds — and not in a good way.
Four times in the last 12 months the Packers held double digit leads late in the second half. Green Bay’s odds of winning each of those games independently ranged between 90-99%, depending on the contest.
The odds of Green Bay going a collective 0-4 in those games was 1-in-2.5 million — yes, 1-in-2.5 million.
Yet after the Packers gagged away another game Sunday — this one a 39-22 meltdown against Minnesota — Green Bay is now a remarkable 0-4 in those contests.
First, the Packers blew a 10-0 lead to Cleveland in the final 3 minutes, 45 seconds in Week 3 of 2025 and fell, 13-10. Green Bay’s odds of winning in the final minutes that day were 99%.
In Week 16 at Chicago last season, the Packers also had a 99% chance of winning when they held a 16-6 with 2:05 left. Green Bay proceeded to lose that night, 22-16, in overtime.
The Packers had a 96% chance of defeating Chicago in their Wild Card matchup when they held a 27-16 lead with 5 minutes left. Instead, the Bears scored the final 15 points and won, 31-27.
And Sunday, Green Bay’s odds of defeating Minnesota stood at 90% when it held a 22-10 lead late in the third quarter. Amazingly, though, the Vikings scored the final 29 points of the game and pulled away for a 39-22 win.
Typically, when a team’s odds of winning are 99%, 99%, 96% and 90%, it means multiple trips to the winners circle. Instead, Green Bay’s 0-4 record had the same kind of odds as getting struck by lightning multiple times.
“Gotta be able to just go out there and drop your (testicles),” Packers tight end Tucker Kraft said. “Like, look across the line of scrimmage and say, ‘That guy is not going to beat me.’ ”
Green Bay keeps getting beat in games, though, where it’s been in total control.
It ruined the Packers’ season in 2025, and this year’s opener was like watching the same horror movie.
“I think it’s going to be a topic of conversation for all you guys until we do it,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said of Green Bay’s inability to finish. “That’s the bottom line.”
How have the Packers become the NFL’s version of the San Antonio Spurs? Let’s examine:
Week 3, 2025, at Cleveland
Green Bay 10, Cleveland 0, 3:45 remaining
Odds of winning: 99%
Final score: Cleveland 13, Green Bay 10
What happened?: The Browns scored the final 13 points of the game, including a 55-yard field goal from kicker Andre Szmyt as time expired.
In the final 4 minutes, Jordan Love threw an interception that was returned to Green Bay’s 4-yard line, Brandon McManus had a 43-yard field goal blocked, and Szymt delivered the final blow with a long field goal.
It was the first time since Week 3, 2003, that the Browns won a game after being held scoreless through three quarters
“It’s like a movie sometimes how football works,” Green Bay edge rusher Micah Parsons said that day. “We have to finish games. We had a chance, multiple chances to end the game, we didn’t do that.”
Week 16, 2025, at Chicago
Green Bay 16, Chicago 6, 2:05 remaining
Odds of winning: 99%
Final score: Chicago 22, Green Bay 16 (OT)
What happened: The Bears scored the final 10 points of regulation, then won it when Caleb Williams hit D.J. Moore with a 46-yard TD pass midway through overtime.
The key play came when Green Bay’s Romeo Doubs fumbled an onside kick with 1:59 remaining and the Packers holding a 16-9 lead. The Bears then drove for a game-tying score when Williams threw a fourth down TD pass to rookie wideout Jahdae Walker.
“When you put so much effort and care into what you do and you care about it so much, it’s more angry and disappointed,” said Packers quarterback Malik Willis, who played the last 2 ½ quarters after starter Jordan Love suffered a concussion. “You make a couple mistakes and the game could go the way that you don’t want it to go, and that’s what’s unfortunate.”
NFC Wild Card round, at Chicago
Green Bay 27, Chicago 16, 4:55 remaining
Odds of winning: 96%
Final score: Chicago 31, Green Bay 27
What happened: The Packers’ second half was an unmitigated disaster.
Green Bay held a 21-3 halftime lead and analytics said their odds of winning were between 96-97%. The Packers’ odds were still in that vicinity after Matthew Golden’s touchdown catch with 6 ½ minutes left and when Chicago had a third-and-10 from Green Bay’s 30 with under 5 minutes left.
But Chicago quarterback Caleb Williams led the Bears on two touchdown drives that took less than 3 ½ minutes. Green Bay’s Brandon McManus missed an extra point and a field goal down the stretch. And the Packers’ final offensive possession — and their season — died at the Bears’ 28-yard line.
“That (expletive), it’s starting to get damn-near embarrassing,” safety Javon Bullard said that night in Chicago.
Week 1, 2026, at Minnesota
Green Bay 22, Minnesota 10, 2:30 remaining in the third quarter
Odds of winning: 90%
Final score: Minnesota 39, Green Bay 22
What happened?: The Vikings scored late in the third quarter to pull within 22-17.
Green Bay briefly took a 25-17 lead early in the fourth quarter on a Trey Smack field goal. When the Vikings were off sides on the play, though, Green Bay took the points off the board, went for it on fourth-and-1, but were stopped on a quarterback sneak.
Minnesota then ripped off 22 unanswered points in just 2 minutes, 42 seconds and turned a 22-17 deficit into a 39-22 lead. The Packers had two turnovers in that stretch and the defense melted down.
“We’ve got to find a way to execute in those critical moments,” Green Bay wide receiver Christian Watson said. “We’ve got to find a way to (have) all 11 on the same page on offense, defense, special teams, everything. It comes down to crucial moments in the game and we’ve got to find a way to come out on top of those if we want to come out on top of the game.”
The Packers spent much of their offseason focusing on finishing. Yet, when push came to shove Sunday, it was wash, rinse, repeat.
“It just sucks the way we ended that game right there to lose,” quarterback Jordan Love said. “It sucks.”
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