Bryce Harper has hit 23 of his 27 home runs in 2026 against right-handed pitching.
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The MLB best home run bets have been in the kind of funk that will drive someone mad. Since Bryce Harper and Ozzie Albies made good on their touted home run props on July 20, only three more home run bets were correct out of 32 touted plays. Yikes.
The home run bets were generating a profit for most of the year, but the cold streak has wiped them out and then some. The MLB best home run bets sit at a 21-88 record, with three no-bets, which is unacceptable, even by the standards allowable on long-shot bets.
As a result, anyone who has bet $100 on each of the suggested home run bets is down $546. Before the slump, the MLB best home run bets had an 18-59 record, producing $442 in profit.
There’s no guarantee of digging out of the hole before the end of MLB’s season. Nonetheless, even a few correct picks can erase the missteps to this point.
Two left-handed hitters from the National League East have eye-catching home run bets tonight, with odds longer than +400. One of them has mouthwatering park factors for a home run, and the other has favorable park factors for a homer and a tasty matchup.
MLB Best Home Run Bets
Bryce Harper (Philadelphia Phillies – OF)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+425) at Hard Rock Bet
Bryce Harper has smashed 27 home runs in 144 games and 614 plate appearances this year. The 33-year-old hitter has hit 23 homers against righties, 14 at home and 12 at home against right-handed pitching. He’s also hit seven home runs in the second half, which isn’t an outstanding number, but it’s adequate.
Harper has better-than-average batted-ball data this year. Among 242 qualified batters in 2026, he ranks tied for 67th in barrels per plate appearance rate (6.9%), 69th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (11.0%), tied for 71st in hard-hit rate (44.5%), tied for 68th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (94.4 mph), tied for 42nd in maximum exit velocity (113.5 mph) and 29th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (38.5%). Harper also has a 12.7-degree launch angle, 21.1% line-drive rate, 36.6% fly-ball rate, 19.4% home run per fly-ball rate (HR/FB) and 39.0% pull rate this season.
Harper’s chances to hit a home run today will get a lift from the hitting conditions in Philadelphia. Great American Ball Park’s 115 park factor for homers since 2025 ranks fifth-highest in MLB. Hayden Wesneski has only given up two home runs in seven starts this year, but both were to left-handed batters. Harper can get the best of Wesneski or Houston’s bullpen tonight, and his +425 odds at Hard Rock Bet are compelling. His +413 odds for his home run prop at DraftKings Sportsbook are also quite good, where Hard Rock Bet isn’t available.
Drake Baldwin has hit 15 homers against righties this year and faces a homer-prone righty tonight.
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Drake Baldwin (Atlanta Braves – C)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+450) at Hard Rock Bet
Drake Baldwin’s splits this season are ideal for betting his home run prop, as he’s hit 15 of 22 home runs in 2026 against righties, 13 at home and nine at home against right-handed pitching. The 25-year-old catcher has also hit seven homers in the second half.
The young hitter has outstanding batted-ball data this year. Among 242 qualified hitters this year, he is tied for 29th in barrels per plate appearance rate (8.5%), tied for 40th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (12.5%), tied for 17th in hard-hit rate (51.1%), 25th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (96.2 mph), tied for 56th in maximum exit velocity (112.8 mph) and tied for 57th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (36.7%).
Baldwin has a delectable matchup to display his batted-ball excellence. Freddy Peralta has allowed 23 home runs at 1.41 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) in 28 starts in 2026. The 30-year-old righty has allowed 17 homers to left-handed batters, 15 on the road and 11 to lefties on the road.
Baldwin’s chances of hitting a homer will also get a pick-me-up from playing at home tonight. Truist Park has a park factor of 105 for homers since 2025, ranking tied for 13th. Baldwin’s +450 odds for his home run bet are a bargain at Hard Rock Bet, and his +430 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook are a desirable alternative, where Hard Rock Bet isn’t available.
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