The U.S. Supreme Court has agreed to hear a Colorado case mounted by Boulder County against ExxonMobil and Suncor, a Canadian energy company with refineries in Colorado. The results could have large repercussions for Big Oil companies and their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the future.
Boulder County sued ExxonMobil and Suncor in 2018. The suit claims environmental damages and health issues that result from climate change. The big question to be resolved is, are oil and gas companies accountable for climate change and its costs?
The Difference Between Global Warming And Climate Change.
At the first level, climate change needs to be defined since a lot of confusion exists about this. Global warming is established by temperature measurements around the earth. It is tied to melting polar ice, glacier retreats, and rising sea levels, and this is widely accepted.
But whether global warming causes weather extremes like droughts, wildfires and hurricanes is controversial. An in-depth analysis of this has been published in a book I have written, which distinguishes between direct effects of global warming on climate, and indirect effects (see Table 1).
Table 1. Direct and indirect indicators of climate change.
Palmer
The direct effects are essentially proven. The indirect effects are not proven. None of these indirect indicators, including tornadoes, have worsened in the last 40-50 years, based on statistical trends in published global data. These trends are presented in my book. During this time earth’s temperature has risen about 1 ℃, which is a lot.
Now if wildfires in the U.S. have increased in the last 50 years, as shown in the book, then wildfires must have decreased somewhere else in the planet to ensure the total global trend is not worsening. Climate change is a global concept, not a local one, and it requires examination of global data.
How Could This Data Affect The Supreme Court Case?
Oil and gas companies are responsible for 50% of global GHG emissions. And GHG emissions cause global warming. These are companies that make and sell or burn oil or gas or refined products like gasoline and diesel. These companies are potentially culpable for global warming, and for direct indicators of climate change. But they are not potentially culpable for indirect indicators of climate change in Table 1.
What About Indirect Effects Of Global Warming?
As indicated, indirect effects in Table 1 are not proven. This case has been made in my book, where the relevant statistical data are displayed. The bottom line is that climate change is not the same as global warming. Global warming has been proven. But climate change in regard to global weather extremes like droughts, wildfires, flooding, and hurricanes is not proven, as these extremes have not worsened over the past 50 years while earth’s temperature has risen by almost 1℃.
What about the U.S? Are the extreme weather events in the U.S. getting worse over time and how do they rank in 2023? Data has been compiled by IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) on heat waves, hurricanes, flooding, droughts, tornadoes, hail, wind, and wildfires.
Except for heat waves, none of the other weather extremes were above average in 2023, although two did show an increasing trend in recent decades. Further, none of these weather extremes were attributed to climate change by the IPCC. It follows that oil and gas companies are not culpable for damages and costs of any single extreme weather event, or any series of weather events.
In contrast, the IPCC found that direct indicators of heat (earth temperature), extreme heat, and extreme cold are attributable to climate change. The U.S. data clearly supports the global data discussed above.
Other Court Cases.
In 2021, a district court in the Netherlands ordered Royal Dutch Shell to cut its GHG emissions. But appeals have been lodged. This was the first time such a company has been ordered to comply with the Paris Climate Agreement. The obligations under this order is the big question, and in May 2026, arguments have been heard by the Netherlands Supreme Court. A final ruling is expected in early 2027.
In an unusual coincidence, the U.S. lawsuit by Boulder County and the Netherlands lawsuit will be addressed by their respective national Supreme Courts in early 2027. But there are lots of other pending lawsuits.
In mid-2023, five oil companies—ExxonMobil, Shell, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and BP—were named in a lawsuit brought by the California attorney general.
In the U.S. more than 60 lawsuits exist across the country, including Chevron, Occidental Petroleum, ConocoPhillips, Phillips 66, Shell and BP. Most of the cases assert that fossil fuel companies knowingly polluted the planet while ignoring their own role in global warming.
Conclusions.
Courts are recognizing that Scope 3 emissions make these lawsuits more complicated. Scope 3 emissions are emissions not directly due to oil and gas companies, but indirectly due to consumers of their products such as gasoline and diesel. If Scope 3 emissions are included in the lawsuit, this is serious for companies like Shell because up to 90% of their total emissions are Scope 3.
Potential court penalties are huge and billons of dollars could be involved. Some oil and gas companies could enter bankruptcy. Oil and gas prices could soar in a new age if thousands of lawsuits are instigated against companies for their alleged climate liability.
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