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Anthony Davis’s Extension Talks With Wizards Are NBA’s Next Offseason Domino

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Anthony Davis’s Extension Talks With Wizards Are NBA’s Next Offseason Domino
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On Aug. 6, Anthony Davis becomes eligible to sign a four-year maximum contract extension with the Washington Wizards that’s projected to be worth nearly $273 million. How those talks proceed could have major ripple effects across the NBA.

“There are rumblings he’s demanding that full max from Washington but would sign for less if traded to a contender,” Kevin O’Connor of Yahoo Sports reported in late July. “That is why not every source is convinced the Wizards will ultimately keep him.”

When Davis trade rumors first emerged on the eve of free agency, the Wizards quickly worked to shut them down. A source told Andscape’s Marc J. Spears at the time that the Wizards had “no interest” in trading Davis and were “not listening to offers for him.”

Would that stance change if Davis demands a full four-year max extension on Aug. 6? The ramifications could be felt leaguewide if so.

Should The Wizards Give Davis A Full Max?

Davis turned 33 in mid-March. He played in only 71 of a possible 164 regular-season games over the past two years, although he averaged 23.5 points, 11.4 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 2.0 blocks per game when healthy.

Davis has missed at least 15 games in nine of his 14 NBA seasons. He’s played in at least 70 games only three times. The closest analogy here would be Joel Embiid, to whom the Philadelphia 76ers gave a three-year, $187.9 million extension that promptly aged like milk on the surface of the sun.

Davis is heading into his age-33 campaign, which means this extension will cover his age-34 through age-37 seasons. If the Wizards can’t trust him to stay healthy over that stretch—and there is no reason for them to expect otherwise—then giving him a full max extension that begins at 35% of the salary cap has the potential to upend their chances of building around No. 1 overall pick AJ Dybantsa.

The Wizards could try to talk Davis into taking less than a max, perhaps by pointing to the sacrifice San Antonio Spurs wunderkind Victor Wembanyama recently made. Although if O’Connor’s sources are correct, Davis won’t be amenable to that pitch from Washington.

That would leave the Wizards with a decision to make.

Further up the Eastern seaboard, the Boston Celtics traded Jaylen Brown to the Sixers this offseason for what many found to be an underwhelming haul for a player of his caliber. Celtics president of basketball operations Brad Stevens later explained that the team’s “path looked a little bit more challenging with 70% of our cap and such a high percent of our usage tied into two players.”

The Wizards also signed Trae Young to a four-year, $212.8 million extension this offseason that’s projected to be worth roughly 30% of the cap each year. They wouldn’t have 70% of the cap tied up by two players, but Davis and Young would gobble up roughly 65% of the cap if the Wizards give Davis a full max extension.

Thanks to Davis, Young and Dybantsa, the Wizards are poised to level up this year. After winning only 17 games last season, their current over/under on regular-season wins is 32.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook. However, they also need to be mindful of their long-term financial outlook.

If 2023 No. 7 overall pick Bilal Coulibaly doesn’t sign an extension this offseason, he’ll be a restricted free agent next summer. Alex Sarr, whom the Wizards selected second overall in 2024, is set to become extension-eligible next offseason. The Wizards also have 2025 No. 6 overall pick Tre Johnson to account for, although he still has three years left on his rookie deal.

Perhaps the Wizards plan on keeping Davis around until the cost of their young players explodes. But given where the Wizards are as an organization and what stage of his career that Davis is in, it’s fair to wonder whether that’s in their best interest.

Where Could Davis Go?

O’Connor reported the “popular theory around the league” was that LeBron James was “slow-playing his decision” in free agency “to see if any of his suitors could find a way to land” Davis or Kyrie Irving. According to ESPN’s Ohm Youngmisuk, “league sources told [ESPN’s Shams] Charania and Anthony Slater that a Warriors pursuit of Davis could be used as a motivational tactic to lure James to Golden State.”

Now that LeBron has chosen to sign with the Sixers, that theory is moot. But could a Davis trade have similar trickle-down effects for another star? After all, James wouldn’t be a Sixer right now had they not traded for Brown earlier this summer.

The Warriors are the only team to have been publicly linked to Davis to date. Logan Murdock of The Ringer reported that “a small contingent of Golden State’s front office” pushed for them to trade Jimmy Butler and draft picks for Davis, but his “injury history and desire for a new extension ultimately convinced team brass to stay put.”

Given Davis’ age, injury history and looming extension, it wouldn’t make sense for a rebuilding team to acquire him. A handful of title hopefuls could make sense as potential Davis landing spots, though.

After flipping Brown for Paul George—and catching a ton of flak for it—would the Celtics consider cashing in George’s contract and draft capital to pair Davis with Jayson Tatum? Could the Spurs envision Davis as the missing piece alongside Wembanyama that can help put them over the top? (That would likely have to be a three-team deal with De’Aaron Fox going somewhere other than Washington.) Might the Detroit Pistons consider a larger shakeup if they lose ground in the East?

The Orlando Magic and Houston Rockets both have intriguing young cores, although financial pressure will force the Magic to begin breaking apart as soon as the 2027-28 season. Might either team look to accelerate their title window by acquiring Davis? If so, both have plenty of big contracts to offer to Washington in return.

If Davis declines his $62.8 million player option for the 2027-28 season, he’ll be eligible to sign an extension all season. The Wizards might not feel compelled to extend him before he even plays a game for them. But how will Davis take to that?

The NBA has gone mostly quiet since LeBron announced that he was joining the Sixers, but Davis’ upcoming extension talks could be another flash point in a wild offseason.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Follow Bryan on Bluesky.

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