Brandon Lowe can hit his 30th home run of the 2026 season in a favorable matchup tonight.
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Brandon Lowe and Yordan Alvarez didn’t hit home runs yesterday. As a result, the season’s record for best home run bets slid to 21-84, with three no-bets. Hitting on long-shot bets is challenging, and that’s reflected in the season’s record for home run props.
Unfortunately, the two losses yesterday drained the middling profits. Anyone who bet $100 on each of this year’s touted home run props is down $146, which is a disappointing outcome for grinding them all season.
Gamblers must have a short memory with losing bets and avoid holding grudges against players who failed to deliver a winning bet. Today’s suggestions for the best home run bets are a perfect example of short memory. For the first time all season, I’m suggesting home run props for the same players as in the previous article. Lowe and Alvarez have favorable matchups and compelling betting odds for their home run props. Thus, they get the nod for the best home run props on Friday.
MLB Best Home Run Bets
Brandon Lowe (Pittsburgh Pirates – 2B)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+420) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Brandon Lowe has hit 23 of his 29 home runs this year against right-handed pitching, popping 15 at home and nine at home against righties. In four plate appearances yesterday, Lowe walked once and had flyouts on his three batted balls. It’s disappointing he didn’t hit a home run yesterday, but he had no problem lifting the ball.
Expanding upon Lowe’s batted-ball data, among 243 qualified batters this season, Lowe ranks tied for 59th in barrels per plate appearance rate (7.3%), tied for 49th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (12.0%), tied for 50th in hard-hit rate (45.9%), tied for 47th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (95.3 mph), tied for 107th in maximum exit velocity (111.1 mph), tied for 82nd in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (35.6%) and tied for the 87th-steepest launch angle (15.8 degrees).
Lowe has a tasty matchup today. Among today’s probable starting pitchers, Ryan Johnson’s 1.99 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) are the second-most. Johnson hasn’t allowed a home run in back-to-back starts. However, he has allowed 16 home runs in 14 starts and three relief appearances, permitting 14 of them in his starts. Johnson has also allowed at least one home run in 11 of his 14 starts.
Johnson’s splits aren’t bad for Lowe, either. Johnson has allowed nine of his 16 home runs to left-handed batters, seven on the road and four on the road to lefties. Lowe should enjoy more success than yesterday and has a decent chance to hit a home run tonight.
Yordan Alvarez has cracked 37 home runs this year.
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Yordan Alvarez (Houston Astros – OF)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+325) at Hard Rock Bet
Yordan Alvarez didn’t hit a home run yesterday, but he has another opportunity to do so in his homer-friendly ballpark tonight. Daikin Park’s 114 park factor for home runs ranks sixth this season.
Unsurprisingly, the slugging outfielder has taken advantage of his homer-friendly ballpark. In 308 plate appearances at home this year, Alvarez has crushed 20 home runs, hitting 16 of them at home against right-handed pitching. He’s also hit 37 home runs overall this year.
The 29-year-old slugger is one of the game’s premier power hitters, and that’s reflected in his batted-ball data. Among 243 qualified hitters this year, Alvarez is second in barrels per plate appearance rate (10.8%), sixth in barrels per batted-ball event rate (16.5%), ninth in hard-hit rate (53.7%), tied for 18th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (96.7 mph), second in maximum exit velocity (118.5 mph), fifth in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (41.5%) and 33rd in steepest launch angle (19.2 degrees).
Alvarez has a favorable matchup to tap into his immense power tonight. Merrill Kelly has allowed 26 homers at 1.65 HR/9 in 25 starts this year, permitting at least one home run in 17 of them. He’s also allowed multiple homers in six starts.
Kelly has coughed up 18 home runs to left-handed batters, 12 on the road and eight on the road to lefties. Alvarez can get back in the home run column tonight, and his +325 odds at Hard Rock Bet are alluring, and his +300 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook are a fine consolation prize where Hard Rock Bet isn’t available.
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