Topline
Bettors on popular online prediction markets believe that Democrats are not favorites to regain control of both the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, amid a spate of new polls showing Democrats holding the edge in key Senate races while President Donald Trump’s approval numbers continue to slide.
Bettor’s believe Democratic candidate James Talarico has a slight edge over Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate Race, despite no Democrat winning a statewide race in the red state since 1994.
Houston Chronicle via Getty Images
Key Facts
The Election Betting Odds tracker, which consolidates numbers from popular prediction markets, shows that bookmakers now believe Democrats have a 63.8% chance of taking control of the Senate.
This represents a massive swing from the coin-toss 50-50 odds for both parties at the start of last week.
The numbers are also a near inversion from before the start of the unpopular Iran War, when bettors believed the GOP had 60% odds of retaining control.
Bookmakers also peg Democrats as massive favorites to retake control of the House of Representatives, with consolidated odds at 89%.
What Else Do We Know About Senate Control Betting Odds?
Odds on nearly all popular online betting markets align with the consolidated number, with Kalshi bettors giving Democrats a 63% chance of taking control of the Senate. Bookmakers on the crypto-based betting platform Polymarket believe Democrats have a slightly higher 66% chance of retaking the Senate. Bettors are heavily leaning towards a Democratic victory in nearly all competitive Senate races, like Michigan, Maine, New Hampshire and even Alaska. Even in Texas, where no Democrat has won a statewide race since 1994, bettors believe James Talarico holds an edge over Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate race.
What Do Recent Polling Numbers Say?
On Tuesday, a new Economist/YouGov poll showed that among likely midterm voters, Democrats hold a major 14-point lead. Among likely voters, the survey showed that 52% say they will vote for a Democratic candidate while 38% say they will vote for a Republican. Earlier this week, Nate Silver argued in his Silver Bulletin newsletter that classifying the race for the U.S. Senate as a toss-up was “no longer accurate,” arguing that the label only makes sense when neither party has a more than 60% chance of winning. Silver noted that three versions of his predictive model based on polling data showed that Democrats had anywhere between a 63% and 69% chance of regaining control of the Senate.
What Do We Know About Trump’s Approval Ratings?
The betting market’s swing in favor of the Democrats comes as Trump’s approval numbers continue to slide downward amid affordability concerns and the ongoing Iran war—which the president has threatened to escalate. Consolidated numbers on The New York Times show that Trump’s approval rating sits at 37% while Disapproval has soared to 60%. Recent numbers are even more dire for the president, as a recent Reuters-Ipsos poll showed Trump’s approval rating at only 32%, compared to disapproval at 66%. Another poll published by the American Research Group this week showed Trump’s overall approval at 29%, while his approval of his handling of the economy was even lower at 26%.
Tangent
The Republican Party held a midterm convention in Dallas earlier this month, where Trump promised that all adult U.S. citizens would receive a $5,000 “dividend” payout, but only if Republicans win the House and Senate in November. Despite economists and lawmakers questioning the economic viability of such a plan that could cost more than $1.2 trillion, the president has doubled down. The promise, however, has done little to swing either the betting markets or polling numbers in the GOP’s favor.
further reading
Hottest 2026 Midterm Races—Democrats Lead In Texas, Michigan, Iowa (Updated Daily) (Forbes)
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