Topline
Democrat Troy Jackson is ahead of Republican Sen. Susan Collins in the Maine Senate race, and Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson leads Democrat Josh Turek in Iowa—among multiple neck and neck Senate contests as Democrats vie to retake their majority.
Maine Democratic Senate candidate Troy Jackson speaks at a town hall on September 13, 2026 in Biddeford, Maine. (Photo by Joseph Prezioso/Getty Images)
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Key Facts
Maine: Democratic candidate Troy Jackson is leading in the race against incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins 50% to 46%, a new Washington Post-Schar School poll (updated Oct. 9).
Iowa: Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson leads Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek 47% to 45% in the latest Emerson College survey (updated Oct. 9).
Ohio: Former Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, leads incumbent Republican Sen. Jon Husted 49% to 43% in the latest CNN poll (updated Oct. 8).
New Hampshire: In the race Cook moved from toss up to “lean Democrat,” Democratic candidate Rep. Chris Pappas is leading his Republican opponent, former Sen. John Sununu, 51% to 44%, according to a St. Anselm College poll, although 4% of respondents said they were unsure or voting for a third candidate (updated Oct. 7).
Kansas: In the race Cook shifted from “lean Republican” to toss up, Sen. Roger Marshall leads Democrat Adam Hamilton, a pastor at the largest United Methodist church in the country, 47% to 46%, in the latest New York Times/Siena poll (updated Oct. 7).
North Carolina: In the race moved from “lean Democrat” to “likely Democrat,” Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper is leading Republican Michael Whatley 47% to 35% in a YouGov/Catawba College poll (updated Oct. 7).
Texas: Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 51% to 45% in the latest survey from The New York Times and Siena University (updated Oct. 3).
Alaska: Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola is ahead of Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan 50% to 43% among voters 50 and older a new New York Times/Siena poll (updated Oct. 3).
Michigan: Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is ahead of Republican Rep. Mike Rogers 50% to 49% in the latest Fox News poll (updated Oct. 2).
Florida: Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon is tied with Republican Sen. Ashley Moody, both with 45% and 7% of voters are undecided in the latest survey from St. Pete Polls and FloridaPolitics.com (updated Sept. 18).
Which Party Will Win The House?
Multiple polls in recent weeks show Democrats vaulting ahead. In a New York Times/Siena poll released Sept. 15, 51% said they would vote for the Democratic congressional candidate running in their district, 43% said they would vote for the Republican and 6% said they didn’t know or refused to answer the question. Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin shows Democrats are favored by 9 points as of Wednesday, 50% to 41%, up from 6.7 points, 48.3% to 41.6%, as of Sept. 1. Kalshi betting odds show Democrats have a 91.1% chance of winning the House as of Wednesday.
Big Number
38%. That’s Trump’s approval rating in the Silver Bulletin polling average, amid a string of surveys in recent months showing his approval rating at record lows amid growing fatigue with the Iran war and its impact on the economy. While Trump’s rating is low compared to most modern presidents at this point in their terms, the president’s party historically performs poorly in midterms elections, due to a combination of factors including low turnout in a non-presidential election year and motivation among voters who view the midterms as a referendum on the president’s agenda.
Key Background
Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate. The party won back control in 2024, flipping West Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Montana, after four years in the minority. A split Congress or one that’s fully in Democrats’ control could significantly hamstring Trump’s agenda, though he’s circumvented Congress to enact some of his most controversial priorities, including mass immigration raids, the Iran war and reconstruction of the Capitol and surrounding areas. Democrats are also gearing up to launch numerous investigations into Trump if they regain control of one or both chambers, with probes set to focus on whether he has used the presidency to enrich himself personally.
further reading
Which Party Will Win Congress In The Midterms? Polls Show Democrats With Stronger Advantage (Forbes)
Trump’s Approval Rating Reaches New Floors In 2 Polls—As Support Among GOP Voters Slips (Forbes)
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