Topline
Democrats are ahead in three pivotal Senate contests, according to new polls released Tuesday—giving them the advantage in seven of nine key midterm races.
Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Abdul El-Sayed listens to a question from an attendee during a town hall event, part of a series of events across Michigan focused on hearing from voters, on September 3, 2026 at the Oakland Expo Center in Waterford, Michigan. (Photo by Emily Elconin/Getty Images)
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Key Facts
Democrat leads in Michigan: Progressive Abdul El-Sayed is ahead of Republican Mike Rogers 47% to 40% with 8% undecided in the latest survey from Suffolk University (updated Sept. 22).
Democrat leads in Texas: Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 47% to 46% with 4% undecided in the latest survey from Texas Southern University (updated Sept. 22).
Democrat leads in Iowa: Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek leads Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson 50% to 42% with 5% of voters undecided in the latest survey from Marist (updated Sept. 22).
Tie in Florida: Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon is tied with Republican Sen. Ashley Moody, both with 45% and 7% of voters are undecided in the latest survey from St. Pete Polls and FloridaPolitics.com (updated Sept. 18).
Democrat leads in Kansas: Democrat Adam Hamilton, a pastor at the largest United Methodist church in the country, leads Sen. Roger Marshall 45% to 43% with 8% undecided in the latest Emerson College poll (updated Sept. 18).
Democrat leads in Alaska: Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola is ahead of Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan 46% to 41% among voters 50 and older a new AARP poll (updated Sept. 17).
Republican leads in New Hampshire: Cook Political Report shifted the race between former Republican Sen. John Sununu and Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas from lean Democrat to toss-up in mid-September. A poll from the University of New Hampshire taken in August, before the Sept. 8 primary, found Sununu leading Pappas 45% to 43% in a hypothetical matchup with 7% undecided (updated Sept. 15).
Democrat leads in Maine: Democrat Troy Jackson is ahead of Republican Sen. Susan Collins 46%-44% with 9% undecided in the latest survey from YouGov (updated Sept. 10).
Democrat leads in Ohio: Former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown leads Republican Sen. John Husted 53% to 45% in the latest poll from Fox News (updated Aug. 13).
Which Party Will Win The House?
Multiple polls in recent weeks show Democrats vaulting ahead. In a New York Times/Siena poll released Sept. 15, 51% said they would vote for the Democratic congressional candidate running in their district, 43% said they would vote for the Republican and 6% said they didn’t know or refused to answer the question. Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin shows Democrats are favored by 7.6 points as of Tuesday, 49.6% to 42%, up from 6.7 points, 48.3% to 41.6%, as of Sept. 1.
Big Number
39%. That’s Trump’s approval rating in the Silver Bulletin polling average, amid a string of surveys in recent months showing his approval rating at record lows amid growing fatigue with the Iran war and its impact on the economy. While Trump’s rating is low compared to most modern presidents at this point in their terms, the president’s party historically performs poorly in midterms elections, due to a combination of factors including low turnout in a non-presidential election year and motivation by voters who view the midterms as a referendum on the president’s agenda.
Key Background
Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate. The party won back control in 2024, flipping West Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Montana, after four years in the minority. Cook Political Report rates the battle for control of the Senate as a toss up, with Republicans favored slightly to win. In the House, where Republicans hold a 218-213 majority, most polls show Democrats with an advantage on the generic congressional ballot. A split Congress or one that’s fully in Democrats’ control could significantly hamstring Trump’s agenda, though he’s circumvented Congress to enact some of his most controversial priorities, including mass immigration raids, the Iran war and reconstruction of the Capitol and surrounding areas. Democrats are also gearing up to launch numerous investigations into Trump if they regain control of one or both chambers, with probes set to focus on whether he has used the presidency to enrich himself personally.
further reading
Which Party Will Win Congress In The Midterms? Polls Show Democrats With Stronger Advantage (Forbes)
Trump’s Approval Rating Reaches New Floors In 2 Polls—As Support Among GOP Voters Slips (Forbes)
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