Kenneth Walker gashed the Broncos for 173 rushing yards in Week 1.
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The Kansas City Chiefs whooped the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football in Week 1, beating them 31-10. Conversely, the Indianapolis Colts enter Week 2 on the heels of getting steamrolled 41-23 by the Baltimore Ravens. The Chiefs are 6.5-point favorites against the visitors on Sunday Night Football.
If the game goes as expected, the betting info favors Kansas City’s rushing outlook and would force Indianapolis to pass to keep up, boosting receiving opportunities for their pass-catching weapons. The following two best player props mesh with the Chiefs handling their business and the Colts attempting to keep up.
NFL Week 2: Sunday Night Football Best Player Props
- Kenneth Walker Over 79.5 Rushing Yards (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook
- Josh Downs Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Kenneth Walker (Kansas City Chiefs – RB)
Kenneth Walker came with sizable expectations when the Chiefs inked him to a sizable deal following his Super Bowl win and Super Bowl MVP Award. Walker exceeded even the loftiest expectations in his debut for the Chiefs.
Walker handled 23 of Kansas City’s backfield’s 31 rush attempts (74.2%) in Week 1, rumbling for 173 yards, 7.52 yards per carry, 1.13 yards before contact per attempt, 6.39 yards after contact per attempt, 16 missed tackles forced and a 19.0% explosive run rate (runs of at least 10 yards). He was electrifying.
Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy fed him. Additionally, they didn’t do so just in relation to his backfield mates. Instead, they also dramatically shifted their play-calling tendencies. The Chiefs rank 20th in pass rate over expected (-0.9% PROE) this year after ranking second in PROE (6.8%) last season and tied for first in PROE (7.9%) from 2023 through 2025.
The shift is understandable. Patrick Mahomes is coming back from reconstructive knee surgery, and their pass-catching weapons leave much to be desired. After trouncing the Broncos in Week 1, the Chiefs have every reason to stick to feeding Walker as a favorite against a Colts team that struggled against the run in Week 1.
Derrick Henry carried the ball 24 times for 144 yards at 6.0 yards per carry against the Colts in Week 1, and Justice Hill also added six for 18. Walker should be the next running back to give them fits and clear his rushing yards prop of 79.5.
Josh Downs had a team-high 85.3% route participation rate for the Colts in Week 1.
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Josh Downs (Indianapolis Colts – WR)
Josh Downs had a team-high 85.3% route participation rate last week, but it resulted in only four targets, a 12.9% target share, 21.1% first-read rate, 41 air yards, 20.8% air yards share, two receptions and 37 receiving yards. It wasn’t a perfect showing, but his route participation rate was encouraging since it was unclear how big of a thorn Keenan Allen would be in his side.
Downs can make more of his expansive playing time against the Chiefs this week. Kansas City has played man coverage 36.4% of the time this year (18.6% is the NFL average) and two-high coverage 54.5% of the time (50.9% league average). The Chiefs played man 28.4% of the time and two-high coverage 58.0% of the time last season.
Downs has a gaudy 0.29 targets per route run (TPRR) and 1.45 yards per route run (Y/RR) on 102 routes against man since last year and 0.24 TPRR and 1.52 Y/RR on 190 routes versus two-high coverage. He also has 0.21 TPRR and 1.60 Y/RR in 266 routes against zone.
Downs is the biggest target earner on the Colts against man coverage and rock-solid against zone. He’s also done well against two-high coverage. As long as the Colts don’t flip this game on its head and run Jonathan Taylor wild against the Chiefs, Downs should clear the modest bar of 40.5 receiving yards.
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