Studs, Duds, And Could-Be With Stats

The Chargers are reeling, and the Bills are ascending. Is Joe Brady out-coaching Mike McDaniel (it does help to have Josh Allen under center)? The Chargers are coming into the game 0-2 with losses to both the Arizona Cardinals and the Las Vegas Raiders. It may be too early to call it a collapse, but…with fumbles, dropped passes, and Joe Alt’s mishaps, it’s not looking good.

Meanwhile, the juggernaut that is the Buffalo Bills just keeps rolling. I know it’s lots of hyperbole for only two weeks, but the team has scored 77 points in two weeks against the Houston Texans and the Detroit Lions.

Studs: Josh Allen QB1, Dalton Kincaid TE1

Dud: RB Omarion Hampton

Could-Be: TE Orande Gadsden

The Why:

First, the dud has less to do with Hampton (but a little bit about him) and more to do with the Bills’defense. In Week 1, the Bills held David Montgomery to 60 yards on 20 carries, an average of 3.0 yards per carry. Montgomery did have a touchdown, but it was in the receiving game.

In Week 2, the Bills’ defense held Jahmyr Gibbs to 52 yards on 16 carries, an average of 3.3 yards per carry. Gibbs also had a touchdown, and it too came in the receiving game. Hampton has two targets in two games. He has a 3.8% target share and 25.8% route participation.

The Bills’ stout rushing defense (allowing an average of 95 rushing yards per game) is balanced by its 30th-ranked passing defense that is allowing an average of 273.0 passing yards per game. This includes giving up the fourth most fantasy points to the wide receiver position (29.1) and the 11th most to the tight end position (8.9).

The question is, will Ladd McConkey be on a pitch count this week? If not, confidently insert him in your lineup. Otherwise, we know that after injuries to both David Njoku and Charlie Kolar, Gadsden will be TE1. Gadsden will leave you with a comfortable floor.

Seattle Seahawks -7 @ Washington Commanders 40.5

The Seahawks will fly into Washington with arguably the number one-ranked defense that is ninth in rushing yards allowed (95), second in points allowed per game (8.5), and first in passing yards allowed per game (124.5). The Commanders will be without their starting quarterback, Jayden Daniels.

Stud: Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR1

Dud: RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Bill)

Could-Be: TE A.J. Barner

The Why:

In addition to giving up explosive plays in the secondary, the Commanders are having problems converting tight ends. Week 1, Dallas Goedert put two touchdowns and 77 yards on them. Last week it was Jake Ferguson with two touchdowns and 43 yards.

And while we know the team is taking a back seat to Smith-Njigba’s 44.0% target share, Barner has the best opportunity to shine alongside Smith-Njigba this week. Barner’s 6% target share and 8.3% target rate are buoyed by his 66.7% route participation, an 83.5% snap share, and the floor the Commanders’ defense is giving.

Kansas City Chiefs -11.5 @ Miami Dolphins 46.5

Studs: Kenneth Walker RB2, Patrick Mahomes QB3, Travis Kelce TE3

Dud: QB Malik Willis

Could-Be: TE Greg Dulcich

The Why:

The Miami Dolphins are in a rebuild. In their first two games, they have lost by an average of 18 points ( aided by the13-35 shellacking at the hands of the San Francisco Niners). So, we can assume they will be playing from behind. And if the Chiefs have a weak spot, it is against tight ends.

The Chiefs have given up the eighth most fantasy points to the tight end position. And Dulcich has a 7.4% target share and has run 23 routes with 62.2% route participation. And if Caleb Douglas is still hobbled…well, more for Dulcich.

New York Jets @ Detroit Lions -6.5, 48.5

Both teams enter this game coming off losses: the Jets in overtime to the Green Bay Packers and the Lions on Thursday Night to the juggernaut that is currently Josh Allen.

Studs: Jared Goff QB6, Jahmyr Gibbs RB4, Sam Laporta TE10

Dud: WR Jameson Williams

Could-Be: QB Geno Smith

The Why:

This game is strength against strength. The Jets’ defense is currently first in yards allowed (197), second in yards allowed per pass play (131.5), and tied for sixth in points allowed per game (15.5).

The Lions average 31 points per game (tied for fourth), are eighth in passing yards per game (246.5), and are third in completions per game (26). And then there is Williams, who, while on the field for a 91.1% snap share and a 91.8% route participation, only has a 16.9% target share with a 23.1 % drop rate. Williams could break out at any time, and it is only the third game of the season, but his lackluster performance so far doesn’t warrant much faith that it will be against a vastly improved Jets’ defense.

As far as Smith goes, the Lions’ secondary is in shambles. In Week 1, Tyler Shough passed for 410 yards against them. Last week, the Bills managed 248.

Carolina Panthers -2.5 @ Cleveland Browns 42.5

Stud: Bryce Young QB2, Chuba Hubbard RB6, Jalen Coker WR7, Denzel Boston WR10, Darren Waller TE6

Dud: WR Jerry Jeudy

Could-Be: RB Quinshon Judkins

The Why:

It has not looked good for Judkins so far this season. While he faces a stacked front on 29.2% of his carries, he is only averaging 2.3 yards per carry. The good news is that we are not only relying on his carries.

Quarterback Deshaun Watson has a career-low 3.7 average depth of targets. The Browns’ pass catchers are third in yards after catch with 260; this includes Judkins. In Week 1, Judkins was on the receiving end of two targets; last week in their win, it increased to five targets. He has run 24 routes with 36.4% route participation. That needs to increase, but remember the Browns are getting acquainted with Todd Monken’s system.

And then there is the Panthers’ defense: In Week 1, they gave up a total of 224 rushing yards to the combination of D’Andre Swift (124) and Kyle Monangai (100). Swift averaged 6.9 yards per carry, and Monangai averaged 10. Last week, the defense allowed Bijan Robinson to average 4.5 yards per carry on his way to 72 yards and four targets.

Judkins, coming back from injury, in a new system, and with Watson under center not looking for the deep but the dump-off, could get his rookie mojo back sooner rather than later.

Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 42.5

The Bengals are coming off a 20-6 win over the Houston Texans, while the Steelers limp into Week 3 after being beaten by the New England Patriots 3-20.

Stud: Ja’Marr Chase WR5

Dud: QB Aaron Rodgers

Could-Be: RB Chase Brown

The Why:

While the Steelers defense is the best product on the field, allowing the eighth-fewest points (16.5) and tied for second with seven sacks, their run defense isn’t quite as formidable. The Steelers have allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game (128) and the 12th-most yards per attempt (4.3). Last week, TreVeyon Henderson returned from an ankle injury to average 4.8 yards per carry, andin Week 1, Bijan Robinson averaged 4.0 yards per carry.

Brown is currently averaging 3.8 yards per carry and is also fourth in evaded tackles (11).

New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars -3, 45.5

Both teams come in with perplexing quarterback questions: the Patriots’ Drake Maye has thrown one touchdown and four interceptions with a 67.3% completion percentage. The Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence was on fire in Week 1, against the Cleveland Browns, going 18-for-23, 245 yards, four touchdowns, zero interceptions, and a 150.6 QBR. Then,n in Week 2 against the Denver Broncos (I know the Broncos are a different breed, but you couldn’t have seen that from their Week 1 performance), Lawrence went 17-of-29, 189 yards, zero touchdowns, one interception, and a 63.7 QBR.

Stud: TreVeyon Henderson RB9

Dud: WR Brian Thomas Jr.

Could-Be: TE Hunter Henry

Yep, going back to the well. The Jaguars are meh against opposing tight ends two weeks into the season. Tight ends are averaging 7.5 fantasy points per game, and last week Broncos’ Nate Adkins scored a touchdown on 32 receiving yards.

While being fourth in targets in Week1, last week Henry was first on the team in targets (5) and second in receiving yards (40). He has a 15.4% target share, 33.3% red zone target share, and a 14.8% first read target share. Henry is also averaging 21.5 routes run per game with a 62.3% route participation.

As long as there is no A.J. Brown, I’m liking Henry.

Houston Texans -2.5 @ Indianapolis Colts 43.5

Are the Texans the best 0-2 team? Both the Texans and the Colts will attempt to take the path of the Atlanta Falcons and get a win.

Stud: Jonathan Taylor RB3, David Montgomery RB9, Dalton Schultz TE8

Dud: QB Daniel Jones

Could-Be: QB C.J. Stroud*

The Why:

Do not get twisted, Montgomery is hanging on to stud status because of his Week1 performance, where he scored three touchdowns on 60 yards against the Buffalo Bills. In that week, he still only averaged 3.0 yards per carry. Last week, the Bengals pulled the curtain on the man behind the stats, and Montgomery averaged 1.7 yards per carry.

*This is Stroud by way of Schultz. So far in this very early season, Stroud has thrown for 627 passing yards. The downside is that it has only resulted in two touchdowns.

Last week, Patrick Mahomes torched the Colts secondary for three touchdowns and 382 passing yards.

With an inept run game and no Nico Collins, it’s a look for Stroud to go through the air again with Schultz and Kayson Boutte.

Tennessee Titans @ New York Giants -3.5, 40.5

Stud: Isaiah Likely TE4

Dud: RB Cam Skattebo

Could-Be: QB Cam Ward

The Why:

First, I’m going with the Brian Daboll revenge narrative. Second, the Giants’ pressure rate is 26.1,% which is last in the league. So Ward will have time in the pocket. In Week 1 against the New York Jets, Ward was 19-of-32, 140 yards, one touchdown, zero interceptions, and three sacks. But most telling is that his longest pass was 14 yards. Last week against the Philadelphia Eagles, Ward went 13-of-20, 183 yards, zero touchdowns, zero interceptions, two sacks, but his longest pass was 41 yards.

Look for Ward to stretch the field against a Giants’ secondary that is allowing 246.5 passing yards per game (24th).

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers -8.5, 47.5

Stud: Brock Purdy QB4, Christian McCaffrey RB10, Trey McBride TE2

Dud: QB Jacoby Brissett

Could-Be: RB Jeremiyah Love

The Why:

So many Marvin Harrison Jr. questions. But the real question is: can the Cardinals’ running back room be productive enough to keep the Niners offense off the field? Love is averaging 3.4 yards per carry. He is on the field for a 42.9% snap share and has a 49.1% opportunity share with a 91.5 explosive rating. While free agent acquisition, Tyler Allgeier has a 59.7% snap share and a 47.3% opportunity share. Allgeier is averaging 3.2 yards per carry and has an 87.3 explosive rating. Last week, Love had nine carries to Allgeier’s five.

In two games, the Niners are allowing 112 rushing yards per game, which is ranked 16th.

Minnesota Vikings -1.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 42.5

Stud: Justin Jefferson WR8

Dud:

Could-Be: QB Baker Mayfield

The Why:

According to Pro Football Focus, the Vikings have blitzed at a league-high 79.3% of their snaps, with a 75.3% blitz rate cashing in on eight sacks and four takeaways. Brian Flores’ defense is allowing a stifling 12.5 points per game.

In his two games, Mayfield has faced a blitz rate of only 21.1% and has been pressured on 40.3% of his dropbacks. He has been sacked seven times and given the ball away five times…yeesh. But the good news is, historically Mayfield has a 91.3% completion percentage against the blitz. This season, when blitzed, he is 11-of-12 with a touchdown and a passer rating of 125.0.

Oh, you noticed the “dud” space is empty? A little anxious to see if it is Jefferson or Jordan Addison who benefits the most from Kyler Murray’s style of play (spoiler alert…I think it might be Addison).

Las Vegas Raiders @ New Orleans Saints -3, 43.5

Studs: Tyler Shough QB5, Ashton Jeanty RB7, Chris Olave WR6, Juwan Johnson TE7

Dud: RB Alvin Kamara

Could-Be: RB Travis Etienne

The Why:

This is a tricky one; the Raiders are allowing an average of 100 rushing yards per game. Last week, Omarion Hampton racked up 94 yards (but really all anyone remembers is the fumble).

Last week there was an Alvin Kamara sighting; he out-touched Etienne 9-8 and out-targeted Etienne 6-2.

The thing is, Etienne averaged 3.1 yards per carry, and Kamara averaged 1.7. And on the receptions, Kamara hauled in five for seven yards, while Etienne had two receptions for six yards.

Here’s hoping the more productive back shines.

Baltimore -3 @ Dallas Cowboys, 52.5

Did you know this game is in Brazil?

Studs: Derrick Henry RB1, CeeDee Lamb WR3, Dak Prescott QB8, Jake Ferguson TE9, Lamar Jackson QB10

Dud:

Could-Be: WR Rashod Bateman

The Why:

This game has an over/under of 52.5 in Brazil on a field that appears to be questionable. Can the field be a dud? Keep an eye on the status of Zay Flowers; if he is out, Bateman jumps into the fantasy-relevant conversations.

Los Angeles Rams -2.5 @ Denver Broncos, 45.5

This is the Sunday Night game in Denver.

Stud: Davante Adams WR5

Dud: QB Bo Nix

Could-Be: RB Kyren Williams

The Why:

In two weeks, the Broncos have given up two rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown to the running back position. Running backs are averaging 26.4 fantasy points against them, and last week, Bhayshul Tuten averaged 5.0 yards per carry against them on 13 carries.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 @ Chicago Bears, 44.5

The question is, who will be under center for the Chicago Bears?

Studs: Dallas Goedert TE5, D’Andre Swift RB5, Caleb Williams QB7, Jalen Hurts QB9

Dud: RB Tank Bigsby

Could-Be: WR Darius Cooper

The Why:

This is a Monday Night Football game, so it will be a little tricky and frustrating. DeVonta Smith is having a hamstring issue; if he is out, Cooper could be the diamond in the rough.

NFL 2026 Week 3 Dud, Studs and Could-Be

It’s that time of year. Monitor weather, injuries, and have fun; play nice. Good Luck.

Stats and fantasy rankings courtesy teamrankings.com, fantasypros.com, pro-footballreference.com.