“Digger” key art featuring Tom Cruise.
Warner Bros. Pictures
It looks like Digger star Tom Cruise and director Alejandro G. Iñárritu are going to have to dig themselves out of a big hole this weekend at the domestic box office.
An apocalyptic satire that chronicles the dizzying plight of Digger Rockwell (Cruise) — a blowhard oil tycoon who is responsible for an ecological disaster that threatens humanity — Digger is set to play in preview screenings on Thursday before opening in about 3,500 North American theaters on Friday.
A long-range forecast for Digger by Box Office Pro on Sept. 11 projected that Digger would open in the $20 million to $30 million range. On Wednesday, Variety said the projections — which were already scaled back to $18 million to $20 million — have been “revised down in recent days.” As such, Digger’s studio, Warner Bros., is projecting a $12 million to $15 million opening Friday to Sunday frame.
Theatrical tracker Box Office Theory is painting a much dimmer picture for Digger and is projecting a $7.5 million to $12.5 million opening for the film.
Whether Digger opens at $7.5 million or manages to earn $20 million, it will still be a calamitous opening for the high-profile awards season prospect. According to Variety, Digger “was greenlit at $125 million, but according to four knowledgeable sources, the budget climbed to $160 million to $180 million after production went over schedule.”
Variety noted that since theater owners generally keep half of ticket sales and Warner Bros. spent $100 million to market Digger, the film “has a theatrical break-even point of roughly $350 million globally, according to executives with knowledge of similar films.” Variety added that a “Warner Bros. spokesperson pushed back” on that number and noted that Digger’s break-even point is $300 million worldwide.
Before audiences head to theaters to see Digger, the film has already encountered shaky ground with film critics. Rotten Tomatoes reviewers so far have collectively given Digger a 51% “rotten” critics’ score on the site’s Tomatometer based on 134 reviews.
Digger, which is rated R, also stars Riz Ahmed, John Goodman, Michael Stuhlbarg, Jesse Plemons and Sandra Hüller.
Anne Hathaway and Josh Hartnett in “Verity.”
Amazon MGM Studios/Alisha Wetherill
Anne Hathaway’s ‘Verity’ Is Projected To Open At No. 1
While Tom Cruise is facing a bleak opening weekend at the domestic box office with Digger, Verity — a psychological thriller starring Cruise’s upcoming Days of Thunder 2 co-star Anne Hathaway — is projected to have a much more lucrative debut.
In the same report projecting the long-range numbers for Digger, Box Office Pro forecasts a $30 million to $40 million opening for Verity. The film, which is being adapted from author Colleen Hoover’s bestselling novel, also stars Dakota Johnson and Josh Hartnett.
Like its forecast for Digger, Box Office Theory’s projection for Verity comes in lower, as the prognostication site is pegging a $24 million to $34 million opening weekend for the film. Box Office Theory noted that Amazon MGM Studios, which produced Verity, is projecting a $27 million to $30 million opening weekend.
Industry trade publication The Wrap is being a bit more optimistic and is projecting a $35 million opening weekend for the film, while Variety is forecasting a $30 million to $35 million first weekend frame. According to Variety, Verity had a production budget of $40 million before marketing expenses.
Verity is set to opening in roughly 3,000 North American theaters. Digger at least is defeating Verity in one sense. The Tom Cruise film’s Rotten Tomatoes’ critics’ score currently sitas at 51% percent “rotten,” which is higher than Verity’s 47% score.
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