Topline
Democrats’ chances of winning control of the House have increased in recent weeks, according to multiple polls and trackers, as President Donald Trump’s low approval rating and persistent economic concerns are widely viewed to be dragging down his party.
US President Donald Trump arrives to attend a Rose Garden dinner at the White House in Washington, DC, on September 17, 2026. (Photo by Mandel NGAN / AFP via Getty Images)
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Key Facts
In a New York Times/Siena University poll released earlier this week, 51% said they would vote for the Democratic congressional candidate running in their district, 43% said they would vote for the Republican and 6% said they didn’t know or refused to answer the question (the poll of 1,503 voters was conducted Sept. 8-13 and has a margin of error of 2.9).
The poll found voters trust Democrats over Republicans to handle all but one issue, artificial intelligence, of eight total, including immigration, the economy and health care.
A Marquette Law School poll released earlier this week also found Democrats have surged ahead on the generic congressional ballot—they’re up 13 points among likely voters and by eight points among registered voters, an increase from six points and two points, respectively, in the school’s July poll (the latest survey of 1,023 adults was taken Sept. 2-9 and has a margin of error of 3.3).
Meanwhile, multiple polling averages have shown Democrats widening their lead on the generic congressional ballot question in recent weeks.
Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin shows Democrats are favored by 7.9 points as of Friday, 49.5% to 41.6%, up from 6.7 points, 48.3% to 41.6%, as of Sept. 1.
Democrats are ahead 8.6 points, 50.5% to 41.9%, in Real Clear Politics’ polling average, an increase of 2.9 points since Sept. 1.
Big Number
76%. That’s the share of registered Democratic voters and Democratic-leaning voters who said they are “very enthusiastic” about voting in the upcoming midterms, compared to 55% of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters, according to the Marquette poll.
Which House races are competitive?
There are 21 races rated as toss ups by Cook Political report—16 held by Republicans. Democrats need a net gain of three seats to win back control of the House.
Who is favored to win the Senate?
Cook Political Report predicts Republicans are likely to retain control, as more of the 33 contested seats are in solid Republican territory than solidly Democratic states, and of the seven toss-up races, five are held by Democrats. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win back control of the Senate.
Key Background
Trump’s approval rating has hovered at around 38% for weeks, as negotiations to end the Iran war have faltered, driving up gas prices. More recently, Trump has escalated the U.S. trade war with Canada, despite polls showing his tariffs are widely unpopular. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate for the first time since 2023 on Wednesday, as inflation has increased from a 12-month rate of 2.4% in January to 3.4% last month. Trump, meanwhile, has urged voters to “pretend” that he’s on the ballot—widely viewed as a questionable strategy considering his low approval rating—and has dismissed voters’ economic concerns. He claimed at last week’s Republican midterm convention in Dallas that “affordability” is “fake,” claiming it was Democrats “that caused the affordability, to use their word, crisis.” He told Republicans to focus their messaging around his push to end no-bail policies; his signature voter ID law, which has stalled in Congress; a decline in prescription drug prices; 2017 tax cuts made permanent last year; and elimination of diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives across the federal government, among other issues. “You gotta pretend I’m on the ballot, because in a way, I am on the ballot,” he said.
What To Watch For
Republicans are planning major ad campaigns in the coming weeks, using their significant cash advantage, that could shift the dynamics of the race. As of July, the Republican National Committee had more than $130 million on hand, compared to the Democratic National Committee’s $16 million. Trump’s super PAC had $403 million.
further reading
Trump’s Approval Rating Reaches New Floors In 2 Polls—As Support Among GOP Voters Slips (Forbes)
Latest 2026 Senate Polls: Democrats Ahead In Texas, Maine, Michigan (Forbes)
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