MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred and the owners are likely to lockout the players this December in an effort to implement a salary cap. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)
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The 2026 Major League Baseball postseason is nearly upon us. While the league and players will try to focus on its main jewel events, looming just over the horizon is the high probability of the owners locking out the players. Here’s the timeline leading up to a lockout, and what happens between then and when a labor deal is finally reached.
Since MLB has proposed a salary cap and other significant changes ranging from free agent eligibility to amateur signings, the league and MLB Players Association have been entrenched in their positions. The league portrays its proposals as addressing fan concerns about competitive balance, while the union for the players says a cap is nothing more than locking in costs to allow franchise values to increase. With sides currently diametrically opposed, the odds of a lockout occurring remain exceptionally high. So, here’s the timeline should one occur.
World Series Ends
The 2026 World Series is scheduled to start on Friday, October 23rd. If the Fall Classic gets to Game 7, the season would end on Saturday, October 31st.
Once over, the business of the league would function under the current labor agreement.
For the five days following the completion of the World Series MLB enters what is called the “quiet period”. Clubs can negotiate exclusively with their own players who are entering free agency. At the same time, no outside signings with other clubs can occur. The trade freeze is lifted during the quiet period at the completion of the World Series. Clubs and players can make decisions on option years or qualifying offers.
After the five day quiet period, free agent signings can begin in earnest between outside clubs or their current clubs.
Current Labor Deal Expires
The current labor deal between the players and league is set to expire at 11:59 pm ET on December 1st. If a new labor deal is not in place by midnight on December 2nd, these scenarios could occur: if the league and players are on the precipice of a new deal, they could extend the current labor agreement, which would allow business as usual to occur until a new deal is reached. The other is that owners could lock out the players. At no point would the players go on strike, as games are not being played.
Lockouts are something that Commissioner Rob Manfred has said are a “positive”.
“In a bizarre way, it’s actually a positive,” Manfred said in January of last year to The Athletic. “There is leverage associated with an offseason lockout and the process of collective bargaining under the NLRA works based on leverage. The great thing about offseason lockouts is the leverage that exists gets applied between the bargaining parties.”
What Happens If The Owners Lock The Players Out
Should the league formally inform the MLBPA of a lockout, a series of events unfold.
All free agent signings and trades are frozen. The sides are locked out from conducting business.
Additionally, all league facilities would lock out the players. That means that if a player is conducting rehab work or other aspects with team doctors, those players would then need to find their own resources to continue their routine until the lockout is lifted.
For the clubs on the business side, offseason activities would continue. Sales staff would continue to work on selling 2027 season ticket packages, sponsorship deals would be worked on, and other general work for the upcoming season would take place, targeting the start of Spring Training and the regular season, even if a protracted lockout puts those dates in danger.
The Lockout’s Affects On Spring Training
If the 2020-21 lockout provides the blueprint on what could occur early in 2027, the league and union feel compelled to engage with urgency until there is a deadline looming. That means that late January and early February when players begin reporting to Spring Training. It’s very possible that the sides will not have reached a deal by then, creating a scenario in which the Spring Training schedule is shortened and played whenever the new labor deal is reached, whether that is ahead of the scheduled Weds, March 24, 2027 regular season start, or after. If the sides have not reached a deal before the start of the regular season, their would still be a shortened set of Spring Training games.
Minor League Baseball Season
The minor league players are now represented by the MLBPA and have their own collective bargaining agreement. However, that labor deal does not expire until the end of next season, meaning that if there is a lockout of the MLB players in December, the 2027 minor league season would not be affected.
Length Of The Lockout
No one knows how long the lockout is likely to last. Both sides have said there is positive momentum from rule changes that improve the pace of play, the challenge system for balls and strikes, increases in attendance, and positive television viewership numbers. On one side of the equation, that could lead to the hope that any lockout happens only in the offseason, and that in 2027 there is a full 162-game season. The other side of the equation points to a protracted labor stoppage where regular-season games are lost.
Whether the owners get their long-sought salary cap system or there are tweaks made to the current framework around the economics of the game with the players, additional time would seem almost inevitable to implement agreements on the particulars. If the owners hold out for the salary cap, and eventually relent, then there would need to be time to reach consensus under the current framework. If the players relent on the salary cap, it would assuredly be under significant changes from what MLB has currently proposed.
Predicting whether there are regular season games lost and how many is going to be truly dependent on how entrenched the sides are as we approach the start of the 2027 regular season. Pressure really mounts for the owners, given there are provisions in national media rights deals that would push those current deals out if the number of games lost reaches a particular threshold.
What Happens Once A New Labor Deal Is Signed
With free agency and trades frozen for the life of any lockout, once a new labor deal is reached, there would be a flurry of free-agent signings. Club and agent signing strategy is going to change whether the proposed cap system is implemented or the current economic framework gets tweaked. Phone calls and texts will fly faster than a Mason Miller or Jacob Misiorowski fastball. Players will rapidly report to Spring Training. Clubs will make their preparations. Network partners will hype the upcoming games.
In other words, baseball will eventually return in 2027. The only question is, when.
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