Topline
The price of gold fell further Monday following its biggest decline in months on Friday, which analysts have attributed to Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh’s speech calling for Fed action to cool inflation, as well as renewed tensions with Iran.
The price of gold fell between Friday and Monday. (AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit)
Copyright 2026 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
Key Facts
The price for gold futures is around $4,475 as of just after 10 a.m. EDT on Monday, down more than 1%, though the metal hit a low of $4,445.60 earlier in the morning.
Gold had previously decreased more than 3% on Friday, which Reuters reported was the metal’s biggest one-day decline in more than 11 weeks, bucking the upward momentum gold’s price has had throughout August.
The metal is still facing downward pressure from Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, analysts say, where he expressed concern about inflation and said the Fed may have “work to do” if policymakers do not anticipate inflation cooling to its 2% target.
Ole S. Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said Monday gold is trading “sharply lower” following Warsh’s “hawkish” speech, which he said lifted expectations the central bank could soon raise interest rates, a move that typically causes metals prices to decline.
ActivTrades senior analyst Ricardo Evangelista also told Reuters Warsh’s comments are partially to blame for gold’s decline, but added “renewed U.S.-Iran tensions are adding to inflation concerns, increasing expectations of a Fed rate hike before the end of the year.”
The United States and Iran traded strikes for the first time in weeks on Sunday, causing a spike in oil prices, which have generally traded inversely with metals throughout the Iran war.
tangent
The price of silver is also down slightly on Monday after falling further late last week. Silver futures are priced about $66 per ounce as of shortly after 10 a.m. EDT on Monday, down about 1%. The metal previously dropped on Friday after Warsh’s speech, falling from its prior level of about $71.
Why Was Gold Rising In August?
Before last week’s decline, gold had been on a significant upswing throughout August, ending what had been a mostly stagnant summer. Earlier this month, the Treasury Department announced it would ramp up buybacks of long-dated government debt, a move analysts credited with boosting gold’s price. Last week, gold rose to a 15-week high, which analysts also attributed to a weakening U.S. dollar.
Will The Federal Reserve Raise Interest Rates This Year?
Expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates have grown since Warsh’s speech. CME Group’s FedWatch tool says there is a 63.9% chance of a rate hike at the Fed’s September meeting, whereas before Warsh’s speech, the odds of a rate hike in September were about 36%. The odds of a rate hike by the Fed’s October or December meeting are even higher, at 72.9% and 87.7%, respectively.
what to watch for
Some important economic indicators scheduled for release this week could sway the price of gold and silver. The ADP employment report is due out Wednesday, while the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly jobs report is scheduled for Friday.
key background
Gold and silver prices have come down from the historic highs they reached earlier this year, which capped a months-long rally. The metals were buoyed by factors including international tensions, interest rate cuts, demand for metals from technological industries and President Donald Trump’s tariffs. At their peaks in January, gold’s price surged to $5,600 while silver was priced at $121. The metals crashed in late January after Trump named Warsh as his pick to lead the Fed, as analysts considered him hawkish on monetary policy. Metals prices have generally declined throughout the Iran war.
further reading
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Says Inflation Still Too High In First Jackson Hole Speech (Forbes)
Gold drops as Fed’s Warsh comments lift rate hike bets (CNBC)
Leave a comment