Studs, Duds And Could-Be With Stats NFL 2026

Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5, 42.5

This is an NFL International Game in London. The Eagles are coming off a bad loss to the Los Angeles Rams, where quarterback Jalen Hurts passed for 93 yards (he did have two passing touchdowns), and the leading rusher was Tank Bigsby, averaging 3.9 yards per carry for 55 yards and one target.

Future Hall of Fame offensive lineman Lane Johnson has retired, and the Eagles then traded center Cam Jurgens to the Baltimore Ravens.

In addition to Bigsby going on IR, the Eagles’ injury list is extensive. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are currently listing four players, all in the secondary.

Studs: Neither team has a player ranked in the top 10 for fantasy points at their respective position.

Dud: Eagles’ Running Game

Could-Be: QB Trevor Lawrence

The Why:

First, on the “dud” projection, the Jaguars are allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game, 74.3. This includes last week holding Cincinnati Bengals’ Chase Brown to an average of 1.1 yards per carry and the week before holding New England Patriots Tre’Von Henderson to 2.9 yards per carry. In four weeks, no running back has rushed for more than 40 yards against the Jaguars.

Lawrence is averaging 210.8 passing yards a game with eight touchdowns and two interceptions. The Eagles’ defense has just surrendered 317 passing yards to Matthew Stafford a week after allowing third-string quarterback Case Keenum to put up 247 passing yards and two touchdowns against them. As I will never doubt Ben Johnson again, my money is on Liam Coen in this matchup.

Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets -1.5, 40.5

The AFC North-leading (well, tied) Cleveland Browns (3-1) meet the Jets, whose offense was abysmal last week against the Chicago Bears.

The Jets finished with 157 total yards (the Bears had 492); they had seven first downs (the Bears had 34), and the Jets’ total time of possession was 17:15 ( theBears’s was 42:45). The Jets’ offense only had 32 total plays (fewer plays than the Bears had first downs).

The question for both teams is, was last week’s performance an anomaly or a harbinger for things to come?

Stud: TE7 Harold Fanin Jr.

Dud: QB Geno Smith

Could-Be: RB Quinshon Judkins

The Why:

Smith is currently QB20. He isn’t playing bad and most likely won’t play bad; he’s just going to be under pressure. The Browns’ defense is sixth in the league in pressure rate (40.4%), fourth with 65 total pressures, and fifth with 12 sacks (the downside is that their sack leader, defensive tackle Mason Graham, will most likely miss this game). Smith, for his part, has a 36.4% pressured catchable pass rate and a 50% completion percentage when pressured.

Judkins, for his part,t is trending up. He is currently RB26 and is averaging 3.0 yards per carry. His fantasy points have been 6.0, 7.3, 8.9, and last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers, 18.6. Last week, Judkins averaged 3.1 yards per carry on 17 attempts. He finished with 53 total rushing yards, but the chef’s kiss was his seven targets in the passing game (tied for second most on the team). He finished with six receptions for 43 more yards.

The Jets’ defense is 25th against the run, allowing opposing teams 123.5 rushing yards per game. They have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to the running back position (22.8) while giving up four rushing touchdowns and two passing touchdowns to running backs in the four weeks. Last week, Chicago Bears’ Kyle Monangai gashed them for 146 yards (on 30 carries) and two of those four rushing touchdowns.

Cincinnati Bengals -7.0 @ Miami Dolphins 42.5

The Bengals limp into Miami among the walking wounded. Their injury report includes wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase, Andrei Iosivas, and Tee Higgins.

Studs: Wr8 Tee Higgins, TE9 Mike Gesicki, QB10 Joe Burrow

Dud: TE Greg Dulcich

Could-Be: TE Mike Gesicki

The Why:

Last week against the Minnesota Vikings, Dulcich was on the field for 51.25% of the Dolphins’ offensive snaps. (Just an aside: the Dolphins only had 39 offensive snaps; the Vikings had 78). Dulcich is Pro Football Focus’ 31st-ranked tight end in targets (11) and did not record a target for the entire Week 4 game. He is 26th in routes run (84), 27th in receptions (9), and has zero targets.

And although the strategy is to attack the Bengals’ defense in the middle and down the seams, perhaps Malik Washington will be a better avenue to pursue.

If there is no Chase and no Higgins, Gesicki is the next man up. For the season, he has recorded a touchdown in three of the four games; he has a 9.7% target share, an 18.8% red zone target share, has run 93 routes, and has a 54.1% route participation (remember this is all with Chase and Higgins dominating on the field). So, if neither can go, look for Burrow to look Gesicki’s way often.

Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots -3.5, 45.5

My soliloquy last week on the demise of Drake Maye may have been a bit premature 🥴. We shall see.

Studs: QB7 Kirk Cousins, TE8 Brock Bowers, RB10 Ashton Jeanty

Dud: WR Tre Tucker

Could-Be: TE Hunter Henry

The Why:

The good news for fantasy football is that the Raiders’ receiving tree, since Brock Bowers’ return, is condensed. Last week it was Bowers 11 targets, Michael Mayer 10 targets, and both Tucker and Ashton Jeanty eight targets. The week prior, it was Bowers 13 targets, Tucker four targets, and Mayer and Jeanty three targets. Each of the last two weeks, regardless of his targets, Tucker has had four receptions and has not collected more than 44 yards.

Since Week 2, Henry has 5,2, and 5 targets. The Raiders have given up the fifth most fantasy points to the tight end position (11.6), including yielding five touchdowns to the position in the last four weeks.

Although the Raiders held Travis Kelce to two receptions and 15 yards on four targets last week, the New Orleans Saints’ Juwan Johnson had two touchdowns and 53 yards against them in Week 3, and even Oronde Gadsden of the reeling Los Angeles Chargers managed to get in the end zone against them.

Minnesota Vikings -2.5 @ New Orleans Saints 41.5

Studs: TE3 Juwan Johnson QB4 Tyler Shough, WR4 Chris Olave

Dud: RB Alvin Kamara

Could-Be: RB Aaron Jones

The Why:

I feel that all that needs to be said is “Brian Flores”. But I will also say that the Saints are 27th in rushing yards per game, while Kamara, among all running backs, is 42nd in explosive play rating (86.1), 52nd in evaded tackles (4), and 56th in yards per touch (3.4).

On the other side, after going two games without a target, since the return of Kyler Murray, Jones has been targeted eight times (last week) and six times in Week 3, adding to his floor of 4.1 yards per carry.

Houston Texans -7.5 @ Tennessee Titans 37.5

Studs: Neither team has a player in the top-10 for fantasy points for the first four weeks

Dud: RB David Montgomery

Could-Be: WR Nico Collins

The Why:

Montgomery is averaging 2.7 yards per carry. New York Jets’ Breece Hall ran for 102 yards against the Titans in Week 1. Since then, they have not allowed a running back to rush for over 75 yards, including the Baltimore Ravens’ Derrick Henry, who rushed for 73 yards against them last week.

Last week was Collins first week back since Week 1. He was targeted eight times ( next closest: Xavier Hutchinson with five); he hauled in seven receptions for 118 yards and two touchdowns. And oh yeah, while the Titans did hold Henry in check, Zay Flowers went for 118 receiving yards and a touchdown against them.

New York Giants @ Washington Commanders -3.5, 42.5

The Jameis Winston-led Giants currently lead the NFC East 3-1.

Studs: TE6 Isaiah Likely

Duds: RB Cam Skattebo

Could-Be: QB Jameis Winston

The Why:

This game environment depends on who is under center for the Washington Commanders. If quarterback Jayden Daniels plays, the Giants could be forced to unleash the “Jameis experience”, which really is all a fantasy player could hope for (you have to take the good with the bad).

Is Skattebo good? He is 10th among all running backs in carries, averaging 17 per game with 11 total red zone touches. He averages 4.0 yards per carry, is fourth in evaded tackles (averaging 5 per game), and is 34th in explosive rating (92.9).

While the Commanders’ defense is sixth against the run (Jonathan Taylor didn’t eclipse 95 rushing yards, but he did have two rushing touchdowns against them), they are allowing the eighth-most passing yards per game 242.5.

On the Skattebo question, get back to me in a few weeks.

Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers, -1.5 45.5

Why are teams opting not to take the bye week after an International jaunt?

Stud: RB5 Jonathan Taylor

Dud: QB Daniel Jones

Could-Be: QB Aaron Rodgers

The Why:

The matchup is the Steelers’ defensive line versus the Colts’ offensive line, specifically their run blocking. The Steelers will be without Derrick Harmon. The Steelers’ defense allowed Cleveland Browns’ second-year running back Quinshon Judkins to gain 53 yards on 17 carries, including a touchdown, against them last week (missing 17 tackles did not help).

The Colts will rely on Taylor, making Jones and his depleted other offensive weapons an afterthought.

The Colts’ defense is in the bottom of the NFL in pressure rate (25.5%), giving Rodgers time to assess and throw isn’t ideal for the opposition.

Chicago Bears -1.5 @ Green Bay Packers, 45.5

Stud: WR5 Christian Watson

Dud: RB Kaleb Johnson

Could-Be: QB Tyson Bagent

The Why:

The Packers are last in rushing attempts per game (18.3) and last in rushing yards per game (58.0).

On the other hand, my doubt about the genius of Ben Johnson is gone. Last week against the Jets, while the Bears dominated in every offensive category possible, Bagent attempted 34 passes and finished with 268 passing yards.

And then there is just the consistent smack talk. Look for this game to go over the expected and for Johnson to pull out a few tricks.

Denver Broncos -3.5 @ Los Angeles Chargers 42.5

Stud: Neither team has a player in the top-10 fantasy points for the first four weeks.

Dud: QB Justin Herbert

Could-Be: Denver Broncos Defensive Line

The Why:

I know, I feel this is a little bit of a “wtf I don’t know” call. But this game has two quarterbacks that both have ‘excelled’ (using that term loosely) in the second half. This game could go over 42.5 with no surprise, and it could also go under without a surprise.

But the Chargers’ offensive line is missing Rashawn Slater and could also be missing Joe Alt, Trevor Penning, and Ladd McConkey. So, watch the injury report.

Detroit Lions -6.0 @ Arizona Cardinals 55.5

This is the highest predictive total for the week.

Studs: RB1 Jahmyr Gibbs, TE2 Trey McBride, TE4 Sam LaPorta, QB5 Jared Goff

Dud: RB Jeremiyah Love

Could-Be: QB Jacoby Brissett

The Why:

This isn’t about Love’s comment after the Week 4 game. It is about the Lions allowing the second-most passing attempts per game (41.3) and the most passing yards per game (304.0). Playing against Brissett’s 67.8% completion percentage and eighth in passing attempts per game (average 38), who has McBride and WR12 Michael Wilson, who runs 93.9% route participation, and led the team in targets (13) and tied for receptions (7 w/McBride) and led in receiving yards (95).

San Francisco Niners @ Seattle Seahawks -3.0, 46.5

Studs: TE1 George Kittle, WR1 Jaxon Smith-Njigba, QB2 Brock Purdy, RB9 Christian McCaffrey

Dud: WR Mike Evans

Could-Be: WR Deebo Samuel

The Why:

Samuel is like the Swiss Army Knife, which makes him valuable in this game (when Mike Evans is injured, thus the dud status), and even though Purdy is balling, the Seahawks are only allowing 144.8 passing yards per game (the best in the league), and Nick Emmanwori and the Seattle secondary could focus their attention on Kittle while the defensive line attempts to get the first sack(s) of the season against Purdy.

Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta Falcons -3.5, 43.5

Sunday Night Football

Studs: RB3 Bijan Robinson, RB4 Derrick Henry, QB9 Lamar Jackson, WR9 Zay Flowers

Dud: TE Kyle Pitts

Could-Be: RB Brian Robinson

The Why:

There is a chance Jackson does not play this game. If he doesn’t, the value of Flowers is devalued slightly, although all cards on the table; I am a Tyler Huntley truther.

Pitts in his two games with Michael Penix Jr., back:

• Week 3: 59.7% snap share with a 69.2% route participation and two targets.
• Week 4: 50% snap share with a 42.9% route participation and three targets.

In this glorious time of tight end resurgence, there are much better places to go.

And now the other B.Rob:

• Week 3: 10 carries and one red zone carry.
• Week 4: 14 carries and four red zone carries.
• Averaging 4.4 yards per carry and a 31.3% opportunity share.

Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams -3.5, 55.5

Monday Night Football

Studs: QB1 Josh Allen, RB6 Kyren Williams, WR6 Davante Adams, TE10 Dalton Kincaid

Dud: Both Defenses

Could-Be: WR Keon Coleman

The Why:

Am I putting too much emphasis on last week’s Coleman’s numbers? Perhaps. Could this burn the projection? Absolutely. And will it help if D.J. Moore is out? Yes.

Caveat: Joe Brady has mentioned getting Kincaid more involved, and yes, could hurt Coleman.

Studs, Duds, and Stats For Week 5 NFL 2026

This is a new month with a month’s worth of stats to work with (yep, second week of the month). There are two teams on a bye week, the Carolina Panthers and Kansas City Chiefs, so no Patrick Mahomes, no Bryce Young, no Tetairoa McMillian, no Chuba Hubbard, no Travis Kelce, and no Kenneth Walker; adjust accordingly.

Also, early International game with the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Philadelphia Eagles: get those guys out of your flex position.

Good Luck (unless I’m playing you) and play nice.