Desperate girl feeling sad about spending too much money on holidays
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The holiday shopping season is starting earlier than ever. Accenture’s 2026 Holiday Shopping Survey found that nearly one in five consumers began shopping before August—almost double the share recorded in 2025—as retailers and brands increasingly use events such as Labor Day to pull demand forward and extend the holiday spending season.
Back-to-school shopping offered an early glimpse of this shift. The NRF found that 59% of consumers started shopping at least two months before school began, largely to spread out their spending.
This may be an early sign that, as household budgets continue to adjust to a shifting economic landscape, consumers are becoming more intentional about when and where they spend. Increasingly, they are prioritizing purchases that deliver tangible value, meaning and confidence.
At first glance, holiday spending appears resilient. Almost one-third of consumers (31%) anticipate increasing their holiday budgets in 2026, with U.S. shoppers expecting to spend an average of $737—up nearly 12% year over year.
A closer look, however, reveals a more nuanced reality. Higher budgets are being driven more by inflation than by increased purchasing power. More than half of consumers who expect to spend more (53%) say it is simply because “the cost of everything has gone up.”
That sentiment aligns with Accenture’s Macro Foresight analysis, which shows that many households are still grappling with the lingering effects of the post-pandemic economy. As of June 2026, prices remained approximately 15% higher than they would have been without the inflation shocks that began in 2020, continuing to place pressure on household finances.
The tension between consumers’ willingness to spend and the continued pressure on their budgets presents a critical challenge for retailers. As shoppers become more selective about where their money goes, brands will need to work harder to demonstrate value—making the 2026 holiday season a potential turning point in how purchasing decisions are made.
Shoppers Are Recalibrating, Not Retreating
Consumers remain willing to spend, but they are becoming increasingly deliberate about how they do it. Holiday dollars will continue to flow toward traditional categories such as clothing and accessories (52%), food and beverage treats (49%), and gift cards or vouchers (49%). The bigger story, however, is not where consumers are spending, but how they are defining value.
Nearly half of shoppers plan to purchase from mass merchants and warehouse clubs, signaling that affordability remains a key consideration. Meanwhile, 38% plan to give gift cards or cash, suggesting that practicality is increasingly outweighing aspirational gifting.
Taken together, the findings point to consumers who are still participating in the holiday season, but with greater discipline and selectivity.
Looking at overall consumer sentiment heading into the holidays, three in 10 shoppers describe themselves as “value seekers.” They want to make their holiday budgets go as far as possible by finding the best value, spending thoughtfully and making intentional trade-offs.
An equal number see themselves as “memory creators,” seeking thoughtful gifts and experiences that make the season special for the people they care about. For them, the holidays are about connection, celebration and creating meaningful memories.
Value remains paramount, but consumers are not abandoning meaningful purchases. Instead, they are becoming more selective about where they allocate their spending. Earning a place in consumers’ holiday baskets will require more than discounts alone. The winning retail brands will help shoppers spend with confidence—not simply spend less.
Enter The AI “Deal Hunter”
This year, AI tools are fully in the mix, particularly when it comes to finding and comparing the best deals. These platforms are quickly becoming influential intermediaries along the path to purchase.
Nearly two-thirds of U.S. shoppers expect AI to influence at least 30% of their holiday spending this year. Deal-finding tops the list of planned uses at 40%, while consumers also expect to use AI to compare products (31%) and decide where to shop (30%).
As consumers delegate more of the shopping journey to AI, the competitive battleground is shifting. Retailers must ensure they are present where decisions are increasingly being made, while thoughtfully balancing their interactions with consumers and the AI-powered tools guiding them. The winners will be those that earn the trust of both.
Affluent Households Offer A Bright Spot For Retailers
A divide is emerging—and it could create a strong tailwind for luxury categories this year. Accenture’s Macro Foresight analysis suggests that luxury shoppers may help sustain overall spending as other consumers become more selective.
Year-over-year spending growth among high-income U.S. consumers remains strong at 2.5%, compared with 0.5% to 1% among low- and middle-income consumers.
Although overall consumer sentiment may be mixed, higher-income shoppers remain comparatively resilient. Among Accenture’s “Luxury Indulgers,” average holiday spending is expected to reach $956—nearly 30% higher than the overall average—underscoring the continued strength of affluent consumers despite ongoing economic uncertainty.
Move Now To Capture Holiday Spending
The holiday season continues to start earlier, shoppers are becoming more selective and AI is reshaping how purchasing decisions are made. For retailers, waiting for traditional holiday peaks is no longer enough.
The winners this season will be the retailers that act on these signals now. That means aligning promotions, marketing and merchandising strategies with the realities of today’s consumers: value-conscious shoppers searching for the best deal, affluent consumers willing to spend on the right products and a growing number of people using AI to discover, compare and evaluate purchases.
Success will depend on showing up in the right channels, communicating clear value and reaching consumers earlier in their decision-making journey. In a market defined by greater selectivity and increasingly complex paths to purchase, retailers that turn consumer insight into timely action will be best positioned to capture holiday demand and drive growth.
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