Topline
A global bond selloff continued Tuesday, deepening as the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield neared levels last seen in January 2025, with higher oil prices reviving inflation concerns and investors anticipating a higher chance of a September Fed rate hike.
WASHINGTON, DC – JULY 16: The U.S. Treasury Building, photographed on Friday, July 16, 2021 in Washington, DC. (Kent Nishimura / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)
Los Angeles Times via Getty Images
Key Facts
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.79% on Tuesday, up from 4.73% on Friday and reaching its highest level since January 2025, while the two-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.35%, up from around 3.5% at the start of the year.
Traders now see around a 65% chance of a Fed rate hike in September, up from 40% in late August.
Brent crude gained 1.7% to sit at $92 per barrel early Tuesday after climbing 2.71% to close at $90.49, and was trading around $89.42 at 9:35 a.m. EST as renewed US-Iran fighting and attacks on two Saudi oil tankers heightens fears of deeper disruption through the Strait of Hormuz.
The market selloff is happening on a global scale, with Japan’s 10-year yield hitting 3% for the first time since 1996, Germany’s reaching 3.35%, its highest since 2011, and France’s reaching 4.21%, the highest since 2008.
The higher yields are hitting the stock market, with Nasdaq-100 futures down 1.15% around 10:35 a.m. EST, S&P 500 down around 0.45% and Dow futures down 0.07%.
KEY BACKGROUND
The bond selloff comes as investors were already reassessing inflation risks and government borrowing as renewed military escalations between the U.S. and Iran sparked a new surge in oil prices, with crude rising to $92 a barrel on Tuesday after two Saudi oil tanks were struck in the Strait of Hormuz. The strait handled around 20 million barrels of crude oil per day before the war, and while the U.S. says between 8 million and 9 million barrels are now exported daily, other tracking firms and analysts believe the number is between 2 million and 6 million.
BIG NUMBER
$40 trillion. This is the number the U.S. national debt passed for the first time last month, making higher Treasury yields more critical to fund government operations and pay off old debt.
FURTHER READING
Why Rising Treasury Yields Are Not Yet A Stock Market Crisis (Forbes)
Buckle In America — Iran War Costs Are Steep And Growing (Forbes)
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